Caution advised in Manipulated stocks

Caution advised in Manipulated stocks- Stock in Focus

TULSI-59.90 Stock has moved up from yearly low of Rs.25.85 to yearly high of Rs.97.70. Major Part of the move has come only in last 4months Low of July/2010 is Rs.28.5 and high of October/2010 is Rs.97.7 and company had announced on 20/October/2010 its board will meet on 5 November 2010 to consider issue of bonus shares. http://www.tulsigroup.com

What is abnormal in this? Stock has been moving fast before the bonus announcement and once the news was announced the stock with volumes has started to correct, correction was 50% of the up-move in the last 4months. Market talk is there were many SMS before the official announcement of bonus and operators were very fast to cash in. Investor should always take informed decision there are many such instance where the actual news has been selling point. No Good news is Good for investor.

BEL(BHARAT ELECTRONICS) Weak Defence

BEL Cmp Rs.1632 Stock has closed lowest level in 12months after making high of Rs.2251 in March 2010 clearly in underperforming market and today important support of 1640 was broken and close was below that.. Stocks 200DMA-1853 & 100DMA-1771 and stock trades below major moving averages and results too not supportive for the stock as sales has dropped 26% and uncertain order book as most of the order from defense is a drag for the company. Stock in short term looks weak and correction can be 8-10% also but always take informed decision.

http://www.bel-india.com/ Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) reported a whopping decline of 56% in its net profit at Rs 104 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, 2010 as compared to Rs 237 crore in the corresponding quarter last fiscal. The drop in profits was mainly due to lower realization in orders from the defence forces and increase in employee’s wages. The net sales of the company for the quarter also dropped by 26% to Rs 960 crore compared to Rs 1,299 crore in the year ago period. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/bel-q2-net-slips-56-to-rs-104-cr/114049/on

GLENMARK more rally possible

We hold GELNMARK PHARMA (Rs 316) which has come with good results and with brokerages upgrading the stock hold the stock with Rs.300 as Stop loss for Target of Rs.390-400.

Glenmark Pharma Target Raised To INR390 Vs INR320 by Credit Suisse
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals consolidated net profit jumped 38.01% to Rs 111.62 crore on 23.19% increase in total income to Rs 759.54 crore in Q2 September 2010 over Q2 September 2009.
Previous Post - http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/09/glenmark-near-breakout.html

HDFC looks weak

HDFC Rs 690 is breaking down from a bearish Head & Shoulders formation and remaining below Rs 707 the stock would see more weakness and fall towards Rs 640-650 is possible soon.

HINDUNILEVER - waking up after 10 years!

HINDUNILEVER has formed a Bullish Head & Shoulder formation in Monthly Graph for last 10years Cmp Rs.306 Break-Out above Rs.323- Target Rs.400-425 in 4-5months. Stock made High of Rs.323 in 2000 and stock has very high chance of Break-Out. Have Suitable Stop Loss!

Big BULL has smart way to exit do you?

This is article is based on a media report and investor should always take informed decision in their own interest as everyone has self-interest there is no free meal in this world.

Last few months Big Bull of Indian stock market was on Media talking about his investment freely to public and saying how investor should invest and believe in India’s long term story. ET in Heard on Street reported that Big bull has booked partial profit in VIPINDUSTRIES which moved up on hype created by Media on Big Bull investment in the stock. While the said investment was made in 2009 between Rs 57-164 as per the same report many investors would have got into the stock recently. Stock after making high of Rs.801 has reacted

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/04/big-bull-exits-mid-day-multimedia.html  This is my earlier post where I said one should learn how to invest following the principles of BigBull but should avoid getting carried away. In Stock market person who makes profit is person who can understand his odds for which he has to take his own informed decision and then correct/review himself from time to time. Many times retail investor would fail to do this so best option before them is MF.

On 08/Oct/2010 I had some doubt and informed my clients (I am a paid Corporate analyst)

A.K.Prabhakar (08/10/2010 12:26:55 PM): VIPINDUST Cracking has BIGB downloaded his stocks to investors http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/04/big-bull-exits-mid-day-multimedia.html

A.K.Prabhakar (08/10/2010 12:34:32 PM): VIPIND is looking weak-Many times i fear Big Bull coming to media only near peak to talk openly about their stock- when they buy around Rs.--- they market around 400-500 only to retailers

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/Heard-on-the-Street-Jhunjhunwala-seen-part-selling-VIP-stake/articleshow/6796247.cms  Heard on the Street: Jhunjhunwala seen part-selling VIP stake - With the broader market struggling for direction, quite a few mid-cap stocks that were flying high till a couple of weeks ago have come under pressure. Luggage maker VIP Industries is one of them. On Friday, the shares extended their losing streak to the fourth straight session, closing at Rs 625.90, down 0.5% over the previous close. The stock is now down 22% from its record high of Rs 801 seen less than three weeks ago. The market buzz is that leading proprietary investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala , who held a little under 6% of VIP’s equity, according to the company’s shareholding details for the June quarter, has offloaded a part of his holdings.

When contacted Mr Jhunjhunwala declined to comment, citing a policy of not talking about his trades. The shareholding disclosures of the company reveal that Mr Jhunjhunwala had picked up a 4.47% stake in the company in the July-September quarter of 2009, when the share price had ranged between Rs 57-164. He then added another 1.34% in June this year. The company’s revenues (Rs 146.2 crore) and net profit (Rs 6.7 crore) for the July-September quarter rose 23% and 100% respectively, on a year-on-year basis, but declined sequentially, given the seasonal nature of the business. The company’s earning per share for the half year-ended September is Rs 14.40, compared with Rs 17.70 for the whole of financial year 2009-10. Brokers tracking the stock say that high net worth individuals were the biggest buyers of the stock, when it was on a tear till a few weeks back.

Update on RAYMOND & SKSMICROFIN

Update on RAYMOND & SKSMICROFIN

We had previous post on Buy- RAYMOND & SKSMICROFIN-Avoid and there are quite few update on these stock which should be taken note of:

RAYMOND says it has agreed on voluntary retirement plan with union representing all workers at its Thane plant. Company agrees to Raise Compensation to Rs.309 crore For Its 1,885 Workers from earlier Rs.150crs. This will help company develop a realty project on its 126-acre Thane unit. http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/Raymond_Ltd_221010.pdf  Raymond Ltd, Workers Union reaches agreement on VRS settlement package

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/raymond-can-return-8-10-within-week.html  

SKSMICROFINANCE Cmp Rs.1056 has closed @ lowest level after listing as after few arrest of employee of Microfinance made by Andhra police and newspaper reports of few more arrest send the stock down. Financing is worst business globally in my view and people want to borrow but they never want to repay, and this is one major reason for recent global crisis Sub-prime and India is no different. When that is so lending to poor people and recovering money is not easy in my view, Education loans in India has highest defaults percentage says data provided by the government, the outstanding education loans of 27 PSU banks at the end of the last financial year (2009-10) was Rs 34,192 crore across 18,51,106 accounts.

When educated Indian defaults on loans how these big companies or investors of these companies expect repayment from poor Indians who are important vote bank to politicians, I Doubt! These are small loans where going to court is every costly and not worth the try, as we have delayed justice system. Microfinance in India can be done only by local politician/ thugs/ rowdy without any registration where no complaint can be lodged against. In my view this stock can be best avoided by investor @ this point in time.

Wrote The New York Times at the height of the SKS IPO controversy: "SKS was set up as what philanthropists call a "social enterprise" -- a business based on the concept of doing well by doing good... there is no question that the company's 41-year-old Indian-American founder Vikram Akula and investors who include prominent Silicon Valley venture capitalists will do very well indeed from the IPO. Akula has already privately sold shares worth almost US$13 million, and he still holds stock options potentially worth US$55 million. The question is whether the social good will be as amply rewarded." Headlined The Wall Street Journal: "SKS Microfinance's IPO Plans Pit Capitalism vs. Altruism." http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/india/article.cfm;jsessionid=a83082893b3a78ce41412113c2f721465483?articleid=4533  SKSMICROFIN

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/sksmicrofinance-avoid-let-dust-settle.html  SKSMICROFINANCE-Avoid let the dust settle

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/mfi-activities-in-ap-come-tohalt/412222/  The activities of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Andhra Pradesh have come to a grinding halt, following an ordinance issued by the state government last week regulating their operations. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/arrest-blow-then-hc-balm-for-mfis/412460/

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/Story/115107/Business/education-loan-defaults-weigh-heavy-on-banks.htm l Education loan defaults weigh heavy on banks

BHARTI SHIP near major breakout

BHARTI SHIP Rs 247 is showing sustained downtrend in weekly graph but now trend is changing as breakout nears. Stock trades above 13 and 26 Week Moving Averages and once Rs 255 is crossed on sustained basis next target can be Rs 290-300 also.

APOLLO TYRE - A flat tyre?

APOLLOTYRE Rs 79 looks weak as it has broken down below 50DMA yesterday. Stock not crossing Rs 82 would remain weak and 100DMA at Rs 75 would be next important support while gap at Rs 75 would also support.

CEAT announced its results where net profit dropped by 75% as reason being 40% rise in raw material and 100% jump in Rubber prices which can impact other tyre stocks which has run up too much on expectation that high Auto sales would benefit MRF, APOLLOTYRES, JKTYRE and few Auto ancillary could turn weaker.
UPDATE-
http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/gsfc-rs-327-near-major-breakout.html  Stock has made all time high Today looks strong

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/abgshipyard-weekly-break-out.html  ABGSHIPYARD no major correction seen till this settlement as Shorts are trapped

23 Stocks to be added in Derivative from 29OCT

Introduction of futures and options contracts on 23 additional individual securities

S.NO SYMBOL NAME OF THE SECURITY

1 3IINFOTECH 3I INFOTECH LIMITED

2 ALOKTEXT ALOK INDUSTRIES LIMITED

3 BAJAJHLDNG BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INVESTMENT LIMITED

4 BATAINDIA BATA INDIA LIMITED

5 BOMDYEING BOMBAY DYEING & MFG COMPANY LIMITED

6 CENTRALBK CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA

7 DCB DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK LIMITED

8 ESCORTS ESCORTS LIMITED

9 HAVELLS HAVELLS INDIA LIMITED

10 HINDOILEXP HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION COMPANY LIMITED

11 IGL INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD

12 INDUSINDBK INDUSIND BANK LIMITED

13 IRB IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS LIMITED

14 JETAIRWAYS JET AIRWAYS (INDIA) LIMITED

15 KTKBANK THE KARNATAKA BANK LIMITED

16 MAX MAX INDIA LTD

17 MRF MRF LIMITED

18 OIL OIL INDIA LIMITED

19 SKUMARSYNF S. KUMARS NATIONWIDE LIMITED

20 SREINFRA SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE LIMITED

21 STRTECH STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

22 TATAMTRDVR TATA MOTORS DVR 'A' ORDINARY

23 TVSMOTOR TVS MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED

Normally whenever stock gets added in F&O segment i had expressed view that gains can be possible in the stock. But Market valuation is fully priced so i would advise stock specific approach and avoid aggression. I am strongly against F&O, it drains investors +Traders wealth – F=Futures takes away future of the trader or investor and Option is an Ice Cream which melts faster if you are a Buyer and Option writing is the dangerous weapon for any small trader or investor. F&O can be good for hedging but if wrongly used this can be a dangerous weapon.

SKSMICROFINANCE-Avoid let the dust settle

Avoid –SKSMICROFIN Cmp Rs.1135

This newly listed stock which has traded just 44trading days has been in news in last few weeks for all negative reason. Many investor and traders have brought into the stock as George Soros Quantum (M) fund, invested about Rs 26 crore to pick up a small stake. But some time brilliant investor too can make mistake and my personnel experience says collecting money from borrowers is never easy and now with many state government imposing strict laws on collection and with legal process in India being weak. Small or Micro financing can be a big failure so I would advised caution in this stock as this is the first company to list so. Investor can wait for few more quarters to know how the company can perform before investing their hard earned money.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Soros-fund-biggies-invest-in-SKS-Micro/articleshow/6230207.cms  George Soros has now identified opportunities to make profit by putting money into the hands of poor Indian women. On Tuesday, his fund, Quantum (M), invested about Rs 26 crore to pick up a small stake in SKS Microfinance, the company that gives small loans exclusively to poor women located in the rural areas.

Shares of SKS Microfinance, the only listed microfinance entity in the country, plunged by about 9% on Friday on concerns that microfinance sector may come under tight government regulations. http://www.financialexpress.com/news/ap-action-axes-sks-microfinance-stock/698106/  

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/finance/30-commit-suicide-in-45-days-to-escape-microfinance-agents/articleshow/6755644.cms  About 30 persons have committed suicide in the last 45 days, apparently due to the coercive methods of Micro-Finance Institutions (MFIs) in Andhra Pradesh, a shocking figure that prompted the state government to issue a special ordinance to rein in the MFIs today.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/finance/SKS-ready-to-reduce-lending-rate-by-2/articleshow/6756543.cms Vikram Akula, the chief executive officer of SKS Microfinance, on Friday offered to meet the harsh critics of the microfinance sector half-way by declaring that he is willing to reduce his firm’s lending rates by 2%.

RAYMOND can return 8-10% within a week

RAYMOND Rs 396 can target Rs 430-435 in a week or two. Stock trades in an up channel and after consolidating nearly 2 months it is showing symptoms of going higher again. Above Rs 410 stock would move fast towards target.

Raymond close to reaching deal with labour union on Thane realty project
http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/6750890.cms

GSFC Rs 327 near major breakout

GSFC : http://www.gsfclimited.com/
GSFC –Book Value Rs.268 & EPS-31—lowest PE in FERTilzer --Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals operates in two business segments: Fertilizer products and Industrial products. Fertilizer products include urea, ammonium sulphate, di-ammonium phosphate, ammonium phosphate sulphate and traded fertilizer products. Industrial products include caprolactam, nylon-6, nylon filament yarn, nylon chips, melamine, polymer products and traded industrial products. The Company's products include industrial products, agro products and biotech products. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010 (fiscal 2010), the Company had a fertilizer production of 18.13 lacs metric tons.
Technical View:
The stock is breaking out of a major consolidation and volumes have improved very nicely in recent past. Stock trading above Rs 325 can target Rs 349 in short-term while Rs 370 can be possible in Mid-term.

EKC breakout as fresh buying seen!

EKC Rs 128 which is in F&O ban is seeing smart move --In F&O ban: Core projects, EKC, Essar oil, Ispat, Jindal South West Holding, Orchid Chem, Punj Lloyd, Reliance Media

EKC above Rs.131 on closing basis the 6-8% upside possible on very fast basis 

Everest Kanto Cylinder Limited (EKC) is engaged in the development and production of industrial and compressed natural gas (CNG) cylinders with well over 1.5 million high pressure gas cylinders and 5.00,000 CNG 

cylinders in service and three manufacturing plants in India Aurangabad, Tarapur and Gandhidam and Middle East (UAE) JAFZA in Dubai. EKC Dubai has the capacity to produce cylinders from 1 to 280 liters water 

capacity and working pressure from150 - 400 bar (Test Pressure up to 650 bar). Its products include industrial cylinders, allied products, medical cylinders, beverage cylinders, CNG cylinders and accumulators. As on 31st 

March, 2010, the Company had two wholly owned subsidiary companies, EKC International FZE in Dubai, UAE and EKC Industries (Tianjin) Co. Ltd. in People's Republic of China

ABGSHIPYARD-Weekly Break-Out

Weekly Break-Out - Stock on weekly basis has given a Break-out with huge volumes making 34weeks high, while closing @ highest level in 35Weeks. Most of the moving averages have converged with 25DMA-249, 90DMA-250 & 200DMA-255, The stock Gapped-down on 05/Feb/2010 and gap level come to Rs.323-326 which would be important resistance on higher side. This stock being underperformer in whole rally can start to perform.

Value Buy- ABGSHIPYARD Cmp Rs.293 –Face value-10 Book Value-211 12Months trailing EPS=42 P/E-6.99 Market cap=Rs.1496crs (Oct-08-2010 Close) All time High Rs.1132 (04/Jan/2008) All time low Rs.62 (04/Feb/2009) 52Week High-346 Low-176

ABGSHIPYARD carries out shipbuilding and ship repair business. The Company's products include tugs and pusher crafts, bulk carriers, floating cranes and jack-up drilling rigs. Its other products include 102M side loader / newsprint / container ship and 83.5M DP2 diesel electric propulsion diving support vessel. The Companys shipyard has a lift capacity of 4,500 tons, side transfer facilities, concentrator (CNC) plasma cutting machine, bending rolls, hydraulic press, cold shearing machine, frame bending machine and steel processing machinery. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010, (fiscal 2010), the Company delivered 14 vessels. As of March 31, 2010, it delivered 122 vessels. During fiscal 2010, it produced and sold 13 ships and barges. During fiscal 2010, the Company completed the ship transfer system at the Dahej unit. During fiscal 2010, it bagged a order for the construction of three cement carriers of 20,000 deadweight tonnage.

NEYVELI LIGNITE breakout!

NEYVELILIG Cmp Rs.172 is a break-out above Rs.177 where 6-10% returns is possible if it sustains only. Stock makes high in 140weeks moving above Rs.178 so wait for confirmation, Break-Out stocks are fast to rally as Short covering being in derivative would be fast. So have suitable stop loss also.

TATAELXSI given few days before is near target but still looks strong for big move http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/tataelxi-breakout.html

ONMOBILE major breakout

ONMOBILE next target Rs.425-440 If Support of Rs.360 is held on closing basis.

ONMOBILE Cmp Rs.376 has given a break-out rising above failing trend-line which brings the stock to new phase of rally. trading above major moving averages 20DMA-360 & 200DMA-354 & Stock has closed above 200DMA in last 3days. This stock was underperformer trading below 200DMA.

ONMOBILE Global said it has acquired 3G video technology and mobile solutions developed by the Silicon Valley based Dilithium Networks. This acquisition enables the company to deploy technology in the mobile video solutions space, on the company 2G and 2.5G value added services platform, accelerating the launch of 3G value added services. This acquisition also provides OnMobile Global with Dilithium’s extensive patent portfolio - over 175 patents in the video technologies. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blnus/15051806.htm

TATAELXI breakout

TATAELXSI has given break-out with volumes moving above Rs.255 from a failing trend-line. 20DMA Rs.248 is a strong support and stock is moving away from Inv.head & Shoulder formation Target can be Rs.290-300

Changes in Nifty

Nifty Index has seen some changes with BAJAJAUTO- SESAGOA & DRREDDY are included buying possible as Index fund can increase exposure, EXIT of Index fund in UNITECH- ABB & IDEA as these stocks are removed from Nifty,

These changes shall become effective from October 1, 2010

The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee has decided to make the following changes in various indices during its periodic review. These changes shall become effective from October 1, 2010.     S&P CNX Nifty Index   The following companies are being excluded:    Sr. No. Company Name 1 ABB Ltd. 2 Idea Cellular Ltd. 3 Unitech Ltd. The following companies are being included:    Sr. No. Company Name 1 Bajaj Auto Ltd. 2 Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. 3 Sesa Goa Ltd.

The changes can benefit BAJAJ AUTO and SESA GOA which look good on graph as well, also funds will try to buy these stocks aggressively before they rally to make adjustments in portfolios tracking Nifty-50.

SESA GOA

BAJAJ AUTO