BHEL looks weak-Avoid

BHEL Cmp Rs.2253- Stock has closed lowest level in 51weeks and trades near 52week low of 2188 and stock breaking Rs.2100 next support comes near Rs.1900 & below levels. This PSU stock could be best avoided @ this point of time.Stock has taken a beating for the last 7 weeks and 100EMA @ Rs 2217 is only slight hope for the it.

PSU stocks are correcting as Government policy of deep discount for FPO on issue like POWERGRID and news of HINDCOPPER FPO price @ Rs.200 has send wrong signal, now investors feel SHIPPINGCORP, STATEBANK, ONGC, IOC would also have deep discount which would give adequate correction in these stock

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/Early-to-work-govt-aims-to-spread-out-sell-offs-in-FY12/articleshow/6944871.cms  The companies that are expected to hit the market include heavyweights BHEL, Container Corporation of India , MMTC , Power Finance Corp, Neyveli Lignite Corporation , Bharat Electronics , and Nalco.

BULLS-BEARS –Nifty ahead of settlement

BULLS-BEARS –Nifty ahead of settlement

Market has corrected from high of 6338 and trades near 9week low and with just 4trading days to go for derivative settlement and Market trading @24P/E trailing has ignored political risk as Prime Minister would file Affidavit on telecom scam soon possibly. Bull Vs Bears fight is tight below 5900 is Negative/6120 above only is positive Nifty PCR-1.08 suggest more of long position.

SKSMICROFINANCE Update & Impact on Banks which lend to MFI

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/sksmicrofinance-avoid-let-dust-settle.html  Saturday, October 16, 2010, SKSMICROFINANCE-Avoid let the dust settle - Avoid –SKSMICROFIN Cmp Rs.1135

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/10/micro-finance-will-this-business.html  MICRO Finance will this Business sustain

Impact of Banks exposure to MFI, this would be important factor to be watched as Rs.12,000crs has been exposed and this business of MFI (Micro Finance) in current form can be wiped off in my view and with few banks like YESBANK, AXISBANK, INDUSINDBANK, ICICIBANK mostly private banks having exposure of more than 1% of their loan book can have impact on the stocks. I have attached website links to support my view.

SKSMICROFINANCE we came with negative view on the stock saying that stock value can be below 650 below now we downgrade more but wish not to give any downside target, any business which has too much government control can have near term impact and Valuation of SKSMICROFINANCE is on higher side in my view as I come from a NBFC back ground and real impact is really high. Government of Tamil Nadu imposed regulation on Micro finance in 2004 and total industry is now gone.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/11/18/stories/2010111852980600.htm  Banks are seriously concerned about the possibility of defaults from microfinance institutions (MFIs) and have started pressing for repayments. “IBA is in the process of convening a special meeting to discuss the issue soon. The total exposure of banks to the MFI sector so far could be well above Rs 12,000 crore”.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/6917472.cms?prtpage=1  Cash strapped MFIs seek Rs 1,000 cr from banks

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/11/18/stories/2010111851590400.htm  Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said that it is unlikely to give the highest investment grade for microfinance securitisations.

Nifty Near Support-INFRA Stock selling seen

NIFTY near Support

INFRA Stock selling seen

Infrastructure stock can have a crude(Shock) surprise if news of Government reducing toll fees on multi axle vehicles come true due to trucker strike already IVRCL, HCC, NCC, GMRINFRA, RELIANCEINFRA, IRB, PATELENG are facing pressure now other stock in that space can face pressure. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blnus/09151601.htm  Talks on to avert indefinite strike by truckers: Nath, According to a source, “the ministry is believed to have agreed to reduce the toll tax on multi-axle vehicles to Rs 2.50 per kilometre from the existing Rs 3.45 per km” after a meeting with the AIMTC representatives on Friday. However, this could not be officially confirmed.

HIND.COPPER & other FPO stocks

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/ipo-upcoming-issues/hind-copper-fpo-likely-to-be-priced-at-rs-200sh-sources_499104.html  Hindustan Copper FPO may be priced at Rs 200/sh: Sources

HIND.COPPER which was looking very good on charts has started to crack and if this news of FPO around Rs.200 is true correction in this stock would be limited as floating stock is very low as Government holds 99.58% but the impact on the stocks which are likely to come with FPO or right issue can be high. SAIL, ONGC, IOC,SBIN, SHIPPINGCORP are few stocks were FPO or rights issue can be possible.

Apollotyres & Why traders lose money?

When investor buy stocks they take just limited view to buy stocks or they take insider information or tips to buy stocks, problem with this is if things go wrong they are not able take a decision whether to hold/sell as they lack conviction as the decision was borrowed one. To magnify many buy in Futures- which become a disasters- When you buy in Futures you become a traders as that has expiry, being a Zero sum game strict stop loss has to be followed. But in contrary people citing previous example never follow stop loss, they feel Stop is triggered and then target reaches. Market cheats everyone @ every point of time to be correct, I have been victim of this many times but if we scarify our discipline @ some point of time we lose total capital. Never look to make profit in every trade there will be losses in some trade if you are 50% correct and with good system you make good money.

What is good system?

1) Trader should follow strict stop loss

2) Whenever you get a profitable trade and if the market condition is favorable then never let go your trade, run your profit with trailing stop loss.

3) Never accumulate your losses try and take small losses early, otherwise it could turn into mother of all losses.

4) If your brokers calls, to increase margin or cut few position then you should have messed up your position and possibility of making money becomes very difficult. Wise people normally close all the trade and go for holiday and come back with fresh mind, Break is important for a trader.

5) When you make a loss forget it and trade fresh, if you try to recover your lost money you can end up making more losses as your mind is struck and you can’t make wise decision

Below is a classic example how people trade their mind, Auto sales have been improving in last 24months and many calculated that Auto ancillary units like TYRE & Component would do good but TYRES companies profits were down due to high raw material cost which slipped out of many investors, seeing CEAT results things were clear but as many brought stocks on tips/insider info/operator call many don’t understand want decision should be taken and now losses could accumulate.

APOLLOTYRES Cmp Rs.66, we had given a caution to investors that this stock is looking weak @ Rs.79 due to high Rubber prices and now TYRE companies are planning to cut down production or hike prices by 15-20%.

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINSGE6AA05W20101111  INTERVIEW-Apollo Tyres to up prices, rubber imports, To raise prices by 15-20 pct on high rubber prices, * To increase imports at higher rates to meet demand

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/apollo-tyre-flat-tyre.html  APOLLO TYRE - A flat tyre? APOLLOTYRE Rs 79 looks weak

CEAT announced its results where net profit dropped by 75% as reason being 40% rise in raw material and 100% jump in Rubber prices which can impact other tyre stocks which has run up too much on expectation that high Auto sales would benefit MRF, APOLLOTYRES, JKTYRE and few Auto ancillary could turn weaker.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Tyre-cos-threaten-to-scale-down-production/709955/  With natural rubber prices rising over Rs 200 per kg this week, major tyre manufacturing companies have threatened to cut down on their production to minimise losses arising out of rising input costs. Market watchers said this could have serious implication on regular tyre supply to vehicle manufacturers (OEMs), replacement market, state transport undertakings, defense and exports markets.

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/11/mind-of-investor-check-nifty-graph.html  This was interesting picture of Investors mindset

Sensex & Nifty Diwali2008-Diwali2010 a Comparison

Long time never posted any Index view, now also it is not any fresh view just a comparative study for everyone benefit as I have gone wrong in predicting 13000 low of 2010 and with just 6weeks only, failing in my view is very high. In Diwali 2008  had said it is going to rain in stock market and in 2007 November predicting stock market correction from 20,500 to 9700 levels and both predictions was done well ( working as Research analyst of ANADRATHI @ that point of time) few magazine and SUNTV covered. In stock market people remember your last call and not how many times one is correct.

Below picture was posted on 27/October/2008 and a list called Compact-15 was given- Old memory( That day was lowest for Sensex & Nifty in last 5years)

Diwali2008-Diwali2010—106weeks

Diwali2008 on 28/October/2008, Market made low of 60months or almost 5 years low on 27/October2008 7697 a day before Diwali 2008.

Diwali2010 on 05/November/2010 –Market has seen highest ever close and Sensex closed 1st time above 21k -21004. To remind I had a Downside target of 13000 in Sensex in year 2010-after 22years of experiencing market and 16years of being professional analyst, Market is all about liquidity and fundamentals & technical’s played limited role.

NIFTY has taken 149weeks to make a all time high close from Jan/2008 to Nov/2010

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/11/mind-of-investor-check-nifty-graph.html Check this link

REALTY sector-Break-down

REALTY sector-CAUTION

BSEREALTY & CNXREALTY both index has Gapped-down and few stock in the index and stocks like UNITECH & DLF has also Gapped-down. While SOBHA, HDIL, IBREASLT were retails interest is very high also looks weak.

UNITECH Cmp Rs.81 – Stock has Gapped-down ( Rs.86.1-85.95) and it has broken down from a rising trend & Bearish Head & shoulder. Telecom Scam will that impact UNITECH has to be watched.

DLF Cmp Rs.327 Stock has gapped-down (Rs.345-341) this can be considered Break-away Gap which can have bearish implication.

STATEBANK-Looks weak

STATEBANK looks weak after Gap-Down after results were announced, and this Break away gap has a downside target of Rs.2809 in my view. Banking as a sector has been outperforming the market; and giving a negative view is very difficult as banking stock have defied all logic, charts and fundamentals.

SBIN being a largest PSUBANK will the right issue be the trigger? http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52832220101111 State Bank of India Chairman O.P. Bhatt on Thursday said the government is likely to decide on the bank's rights issue this month. Bhatt, speaking at a banking seminar, said the bank intends to raise 200 billion rupees ($4.5 billion) via the rights issue.

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http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/  Look at the Other Side

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/02/caution-to-investors-from-sebi.html The following caution is issued by SEBI in the interest of investors. Be extra cautious while using information available from media sources such as Websites/ Blogs/ Newspaper Advertisements/ SMS’s Emails/rumours/ advice through television or print media for information and tips for intra-day, short term or long term investing.

Latest New--

http://www.livemint.com/2010/11/11233215/SBI-rating-slips-a-notch-in-RB.html?h=A1 SBI rating slips a notch in RBI review, NPAs underestimated, capital inflated, says central bank report, which also points to governance issues.

INDUS IND BANK can be fund favourite after MSCI addition

LUPIN, LICHOUSING, INDUSINDBANK, CANARABANK can be added in MSCI Index as per news reports and that would be positive for these stocks in short term ----  INDUSINDBANK trades over an up trend line consistently and addition to MSCI would be very positive as funds that track MSCI would try to buy into this stock. CMP Rs 302 Short term target can be Rs 320

Diwali Picks & HINDUNILEVER closes @ highest ever

Highest ever close (Rs. 319) for HINDUNILEVER previous being Rs.314 on 25/02/2000

HINDUNILVR has closed at highest level in its life time of 20 years and this is a notable symptom for forthcoming rally. Its a multi-year breakout which can give way to a rally of big magnitude where targets above Rs 400 are easily possible.

HUL is a leader in FMCG industry and known for giving fantastic dividends (Current Div Yield 2%) which has sustained for the last 2 decades.

Mahurat Picks 2010- GLENMARK, HINDUNILEVER, SONATASOFTWARE, ONMOBILE, RELIANCE, RELINFRA, NTPC, GMRINFRA, IDBI and BAJAJHOLDING
Previous link for HINDUNILVR - http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/10/hindunilever-waking-up-after-10-years.html

RPOWER(Rs.171) Break-Out

RPOWER (Rs.171) has given a Gap-up(Rs.167-170) Break-out from a triangle formation which is very positive and Rs.190 is 17months high and breaking which Rs.210 can also be possible. RNRL & RPOWER would be merged from November 11th, RPOWER jumped buoyed by the company’s announcement to secure $5-billion (nearly Rs 22,000 crore) funds from the US Export Import Bank for gas-based and renewable energy projects.

http://hindi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/6545697.cms बजाज होल्डिंग्स सलाह: खरीदें पिछला बंद स्तर: 942 लक्ष्य मूल्य: 1010 स्टॉप लॉस: 900 बजाज होल्डिंग्स के शेयर 139 हफ्ते के उच्चतम स्तर पर बंद हुए हैं। साप्ताहिक चार्ट पर कंपनी के शेयरों में वेज पैटर्न से ब्रेकआउट हुआ है। शेयरों में प्रमुख मूविंग एवरेज से ऊपर कारोबार हो रहा है। इसका 20 डीएमए 882 रुपए पर बन रहा है। कंपनी के शेयरों में चढ़ते चैन

Update on IDBIBANK- Cmp Rs.195

Update on IDBIBANK- Cmp Rs.195 Buy given @ Rs.102 near to double in 16months.

On Saturday, August 29, 2009 we Posted IDBI @ Rs.102 for Break-out(Short Term) and http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/08/idbi-break-out.html  Long Term Target for the stock Rs.170-200 in 18-24months.

Now Target has been reached but there is no weakness yet in the stock and technically stock can move towards Rs.265-280 in next 8-12months and 3years target can be Rs.400 also.

Technically stock has made all time new high on 28th October 2010, Breaking previous High made in November 2007 Rs.181 after 36months or 3years time.

IDBI is a PSU Bank with a difference being a new generation bank http://www.idbi.com/  Face value Rs.10 Book Value Rs.115. IDBI Bank holds a significant stake includes NSE, LIC, IDFC, IFCI, NSDL, CARE, ARCIL, SHCIL and SIDBI to name a few and if these holding are taken in current market value then stock quotes below book value. Bank has a network of 759 Branches and 1295ATMs and plans to roll out another 300 branches during FY 2010-11. http://www.idbi.com/branches1.asp

IDBI analyst presentation

http://www.idbibank.com/pdf/IDBIBanksept%2010PresentationtoAnalysts.pdf

Aspiring to become the 5th largest Bank by 2012 in terms of assets and market capitalization

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/  Look at the Other Side

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/02/caution-to-investors-from-sebi.html  The following caution is issued by SEBI in the interest of investors. Be extra cautious while using information available from media sources such as Websites/ Blogs/ Newspaper Advertisements/ SMS’s Emails/rumours/ advice through television or print media for information and tips for intra-day, short term or long term investing.

WISH you Happy DIWALI +Break-Out BEGERPAINTS

BERGERPAINTS-Cmp Rs.103 Stock is near triangle break-out breaking which all time of the stock Rs.123 can also be tested all time high was made 34trading days before. Stock is trading slightly below 20DMA Rs.104 and any break-out with volumes is needed.

http://www.bergerpaints.com/  Berger Paints India Limited (BPIL) is one of India's foremost paint companies, currently ranked as second largest on the basis of consolidated sales turnover in Indian paint industry.

SHIPYARD update- ABG & BHARTISHIPAYRD

India May Drop Experience Rule to Let Local Shipyards Bid on Large Vessels - The shipping ministry wants to drop a clause that requires yards to have prior experience building large vessels, the official said today, asking not to be identified as the matter is confidential. Indian shipbuilders may be selected if their bid is within 15 percent of the lowest offer, the official said, citing a note circulated to the cabinet. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-01/india-said-to-consider-easing-curbs-on-yards-bidding-for-tanker-contracts.html

We had Value Buy in ABGSHIPYARD & BHARTISHIPYARD which is still undervalued  
Indian Shipyard companies can now get more orders if market talks of proposed changes in Government policy to drop experience rule and Indian Company can get up to 15% higher prices compared to international bidder and Shipping Corporation alone can order $8billion by 2015.

ABG SHIP just trail profits now CMP Rs 477

BHARTI SHIP more rally is possible CMP Rs 266

DIWALI PICK - BAJAJ HOLDING

Bajaj Holdings & Investments Ltd (BAJHOL) a primary investment holding company was demerged from Bajaj Auto Ltd (BAJAUT) in 2008. All the businesses and all properties, assets, investments and liabilities of Bajaj Auto & Bajaj Finserve (BAJFIN), other than the manufacturing undertaking and the strategic business undertaking, now remain with BAJHOL. Post‐demerger, BAJHOL holds more than 30% shares each in Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Finserve.

BAJAJHOLDING (Rs.931) Stock is a major triangle break-out with volumes and closed @ highest level in 32months, this stock new entrant in F&O has added more liquidity and traders interest in the stock. BAJAJHLDG is trading at a significant discount of greater than 55% so the gap can get narrowed down.

Stock can target Rs 990-1010 and short-term traders can keep adequate stop near Rs 895 Investors can look forward to Rs 1200 as target over 12-18 months

SONATASOFTWARE Break-Out looking good

SONATASOFTWARE Cmp Rs.60 Stock has closed highest level in 6months. Monthly graph shows in Bullish Head & shoulder and next target can be Rs.70 & 75 also. Stock also trades above all important moving average 20DMA-Rs.51.80 100DMA-50.8 200DMA-53.3.

Market Talk--The promoters are in talks to sell their stake in the firm, at least three people with direct knowledge of the matter said. The Rajan Raheja group and Bhupati Investments Finance, promoters of the firm, have appointed KPMG to manage the process. http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_oracle-wipro-said-to-be-in-race-for-sonata-stake_1460438 

SONATA SOFTWARE Headquartered in Bangalore, India, is a leading IT consulting and services company. Sonata's customers are located across the US, Europe, Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. Its portfolio of services includes IT Consulting, Product Engineering Services, Travel Solutions, Application Development, Application Management, Managed Testing, Business Intelligence, Infrastructure Management and Packaged Applications. As per the industry rankings released by NASSCOM for 2009-10, Sonata Software figured among the Top 20 IT Software Services Exporters in India for the third consecutive year. Sonata Software has also been ranked Global #2 in the 2008 Top Ten ESO: Outsourced Software Development in The Black Book of Outsourcing.