Monday, September 28, 2009

Keynes economist or a Investor

Keynes economist or a Investor
Which is the best investment method?
There are many method of investment Fundamental, Technical, insider news, investing using economical cycles, investment based on greed and fear( investing when Sensex was below10,000 after 50% correction from peak), investment based on dividend yield, investing based on bottoming of industry cycle(Hotel & Textile in worst phase now) and even being a contrarian investor  George Soros has excelled.
So it is not in one method of investing the best investors have used multiple combination legendary investor Warren Buffet even waited for years to invest in panic of 2008-09 so he waited for fear in market to invest with greed.
History says John Maynard Keynes British economist as one of the best speculator and investor who lived during Great Depression and World War I & II.
After Sub-Prime crisis the global economy is following Keynesian economics among various policy makers from the world's industrialized economies. This included discussion and implementation of economic policies in accordance with the recommendations made by John Maynard Keynes in response to the Great Depression—such as fiscal stimulus and expansionary monetary policy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932009_Keynesian_resurgence
John Maynard Keynes,  (5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946) was a British economist whose ideas have been a central influence on modern macroeconomics, both in theory and practice. He advocated interventionist government policy, by which governments would use fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the adverse effects of business cycles, economic recessions, and depressions. His ideas are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots.
Keynes economist or a Investor
Keynes was an economist; he was an investor; he was a patron of the arts and a lover of ballet. He was a speculator. He was also confidant of prime ministers. He had a civil service career. So he lived a very full life in all those ways.” Keynes speculated with his personal account, invested on behalf of various investment and insurance trusts and even ran a college endowment, each of which had different goals, time horizons, and product mandates.
Upon his death, he left a substantial personal fortune primarily a result of his financial market activities. Evidence of Keynes’ investing acumen can be found in the returns of the King’s College Cambridge endowment, the College Chest, for which he had total discretion as the First Bursar. A publicly available track record shows he returned an average of 13.2% per annum from 1928 to 1945, a time when the broad UK equity index lost an average of 0.5% per annum.
This was quite a feat considering the 1929 stock market crash, the Great Depression, and World War II occurred over that time frame. But, like all great investors, Keynes first had to learn some difficult lessons. He was not immune to blowups in spite of his superior intellect and understanding of global markets. In the early 1900s, he successfully speculated in global currencies on margin before switching to the commodity markets. Then, during the commodity slump of 1929, his personal account was completely wiped out by a margin call. After the 1929 setback, his greatest successes came from investing globally in equities but he continued to speculate in bonds and commodities.
His investment philosophy . . . changed in line with his evolving economic theories. He learned a lot of his theory from his experience as an investor and this theory in turn modified his practice as an investor.”