Sunday, February 28, 2010

FABULOUS-15 Tracker



FABULOUS-15 TRACKER - List Launched on 31-Dec-2009
Stock Name
Reco Price (Rs)
CMP
(Rs)
High So Far (Rs)
Target
(Rs)
% Returns So Far
Action
3IINFOTECH
87
73
97
118
-16
Hold
ADHUNIK MET
110
100
127
152
-9
Hold
EKC
156
109
162
189
-30
Hold
EMCO
91
82
109
130
-10
Hold
GIC HOUSING
92
86
94
150
-7
Hold
GLENMARK
278
252
290
350
-9
Hold
GREAVES COT
286
270
303
352
-6
Hold
GSPL
98
85
102
125
-13
Hold
GUJ NRE COKE
80
72
98
110
-10
Hold
IFCI
54
51
60
75
-6
Hold
MRPL
78
74
86
100
-5
Hold
NEYVELILIG
152
156
172
196
3
Hold
POWERGRID
109
107
121
141
-2
Hold
SKUMAR
41
45
50
70
10
Hold
SUZLON
91
72
95
140
-21
Hold
ABG SHIP
210
270
270
270
29
Profits Taken

FABULOUS-15 has closed with negative returns of 6.37%; NEYVELI and SKUMAR continue to outperform while SUZLON, EKC, 3i INFO have been top losers in this portfolio but fundamentally speaking they hold more value than before so they can be averaged as we still have funds being only 30% invested.
Budget Beneficiaries:
SUZLON: Excise duty exemption for wind turbine
MRPL: One-time inventory gain due to import parity price rise
SKUMAR: Government said it would launch a skill development plan in the textile sector and also extend interest subvention of 2% on exports to Mar 2011, dealers said.
IFCI: RBI would issue more banking licenses, Government is expected to soon appoint consultant for restructuring
GREAVES COT: Nil duty road machine can be sold by depreciated payment
GLENMARK: Weighted deduction for R&D expenditure increased to 200% from 150%
GIC HSG: Urban development allocated 54 bln rupee FY11 vs 30.6 bln, Home loan interest subvention scheme extended to Mar 2011
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Budget proposal for Realty & update on Realty Sector

BSEREALTY (3236) On Tuesday, October 27, 2009 we came with Realty Stocks - Really A Caution! When the Index was 4315 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/10/realty-stocks-really-caution.html  and later we gave a update on Tuesday, December 1, 2009 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/12/update-on-realty-sector-bse-realty-3660.html  and this sector has almost corrected more than 25% and still problems remain this sector did correct 5% from the budget day high 3376 to close around 3236 so I had collected few details why this sector saw huge sell-off with very high volumes in last one hour of trade on 26/Feb/2010 and few details and graph are attached
Hourly Graph: The below attached hourly graph clearly shows the sell-off in last one hour with very heavy volumes
Budget proposal:
1. One per cent interest subvention on housing loans up to Rs.10 lakh (where the cost of the house does not exceed Rs.20 lakh) to be extended till March 31, 2011.
2. Under section 80-IB(10), pending projects to be completed within a period of five years instead of four years for claiming a deduction on their profits. Relaxation of norms for built-up area of shops and other commercial establishments in housing projects (earlier 5%) to enable basic facilities for their residents.
http://indiabudget.nic.in/ub2010-11/fb/bill5.pdf  construction of a new building which is intended for sale, wholly or partly, by a builder or any person authorized by the builder before, during or after construction (except in cases for which no sum is received from or on behalf of the prospective buyer by the builder or the person authorized by the builder before grant of completion certificate by the authority competent to issue such certificate under any law for the time being in force) shall be deemed to be service provided by the builder to the buyer;”;
http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=387068 The government yesterday brought transactions such as leasing vacant land and commercial spaces, payment made to developers before the grant of completion certificate and imposing preferred location charges among others under service tax net. The transactions now attract a service tax of 10.3 per cent. Developers complain that levying service tax on payments during construction will push up prices and reduce home sales.
Technical view: BSEREALTY sector is moving in downward channel and till 3400 above close is not seen for few days weakness would be seen in this sector


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5605438.cms  Very slow pick-up in demand, execution risks for large projects, a rising risk of banks being asked to assign higher risk-weight to their real estate lending’s, and chances of oversupply of the stocks of realty companies through IPOs.

Caution: I am not a tax consultant so I don’t understand tax implication I have collected data’s available on the net and posted here this view just to add extra dimension and last hour selling in Realty stock made me to collect few details. Important these are budget proposal and they can be subject to changes as parliament will start to debate so please take informed decision http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/02/be-informed-investor-in-informed-world.html
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Friday, February 26, 2010

Budget stocks & AMTEKAUTO near break-out

IFCI, IDFC, RELIANCECAPITAL – Banking license
DEEPAKFERT, CHAMBAL, TATACHEM, NFL, RCF, NAGARFERT, UNIPHOS- Cash subsidy
Surcharge on corporate tax cut to 7.5% positive for corporate India
AMTEKAUTO is a near a break-out above Rs, 180 can target Rs.206 just a view
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Thursday, February 25, 2010

KOTAK BANK in benchmark Nifty Index-Impact study

News: The National Stock Exchange will include KOTAK BANK in its benchmark Nifty Index, replacing GRASIM w.e.f. April 8; selling pressure in GRASIM may be seen while KOTAK BANK can see fresh buying as index funds change composition.
Impact: Index based funds would churn their investment as they would exit GRASIM and add KOTAKBANK which would be positive for KOTAKBANK in short term
Technical view: KOTAKBANK holding low of Rs.695 would be very positive for the stock and near term target of Rs.760-785 can be possible.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=86795&tp=on  Kotak to replace Grasim in Nifty, stocks react
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Nifty & Sensex view and Outlook of Indian Market on budget week


Nifty & Sensex is trading between 89EDMA & 200EDMA as a range in the last 19trading days waiting for a firm direction or trend which is missing and more sideways move is seen. Nifty 89EDMA is 4934 & 200EDMA is 4671
Sensex 89EDMA is 16537 & 200EDMA is 15639
Adv-Dec ratio from 1st of January till 22nd February= BSE 2968 Issues Adv-1193 Dec 1759 Unchanged 16 & NSE 1348 Issues Adv-463 Dec 874 Unchanged 11
24th February Rail Budget
25th February Economic survey
26th February General Budget and GDP data and after which 3days of holiday can keep market flat for the week.
Jesse Livemore has said, "there are days I will be long and days I will be short and there will be days I will go fishing”. 

This market is becoming so narrow and low volume affair in cash segment that traders are not making money. The Adv-Dec ratio has turned very negative if we check from start of year and in spite of indices being range-bound, individual stocks have fallen heavily. 
As per previous view, (Previous View http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/02/nifty-sensex-view-and-outlook-of-indian.html) Nifty fell slightly short of our 4950 target but the needed momentum is not present to take rally higher with vigour. Many events are scheduled this week and newsflow can give way to sharp moves either side. Volumes have already dropped to below Rs 10,000Cr in NSE cash itself which is lowest in nearly a year and with such low volume no trading position would be so profitable. This is a caution to short-term traders and better to just watch what is happening than risk on low volume markets. More quotes from Jesse Livermore will only clarify in a better way:
  • When the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day - and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way, you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit and you get out - too soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts.
  • The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the getrich- quick  adventurer. They will die poor.

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Sunday, February 21, 2010

FABULOUS-15 Tracker

FABULOUS-15 is down 4.37% Vs Nifty down 6.85% this year so far. The list includes a collection of mid and large cap stocks which look good from 1-2 year perspective. 

http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/02/update-on-guj-nre-coke.html GUJARATNRECOKE Looks good

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER - List Launched on 31-Dec-2009
Stock Name
Reco Price (Rs)
CMP
(Rs)
High So Far (Rs)
Target
(Rs)
% Returns So Far
Action
3IINFOTECH
87
75
97
118
-14
Hold
ADHUNIK MET
110
101
127
152
-8
Hold
EKC
156
121
162
189
-22
Hold
EMCO
91
83
109
130
-9
Hold
GIC HOUSING
92
87
94
150
-5
Hold
GLENMARK
278
260
290
350
-6
Hold
GREAVES COT
286
279
303
352
-2
Hold
GSPL
98
87
102
125
-11
Hold
GUJ NRE COKE
80
76
98
110
-5
Hold
IFCI
54
49
60
75
-9
Hold
MRPL
78
75
86
100
-4
Hold
NEYVELILIG
152
153
172
196
1
Hold
POWERGRID
109
107
121
141
-2
Hold
SKUMAR
41
49
50
70
20
Hold
SUZLON
91
70
95
140
-23
Hold
ABG SHIP
210
270
270
270
29
Profits Taken


Week Ahead:

Markets are expected to be very interesting next week with many events lined up 

  • Parliamentary Session starting on 22 Feb
  • Railway Budget on 24
  • F&O Expiry on 25th
  • Union Budget on 26 Feb

Government raised Urea prices by 10% and decontrolled other fertilizer prices which makes many think about this budget in a very positive way and if some favourable announcements happen big short covering can take markets higher.
S KUMAR has outperformed the markets with 20% gains so far, the stock looks very good for Rs 55 and Rs 60 as next targets, FABULOUS-15 target of Rs 70 may also happen in a year.



News Update on FABULOUS-15
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