Nifty-4941-Monthly Graph
Indian market has been in a trading range of 4600-5100 in the last 6months including November 2009, and anyone who was short or long in the index by averaging would have made money both sides and Index which was moving sharply for a V-Shape recovery has failed to proceed and now if a channel is drawn support comes near 4270 and 8Month EMA is 4518 and any up-move 5225 & 5500 can be a strong resistance and till March end of 2010 I don’t see any big chance of Nifty crossing 5600 which makes Risk more than the reward.
Sensex-16632
Sensex has Gaped-down and marked low in 14trading days and last 2days of trade has seen higher volumes and failing to move above 16815 would suggest weakness is market and below 16200 possibility of making lower low below 15330 arise.
Graph of Monthly shows that V-Shape rally is now can become W-Shape also.
FIIs have been sellers from 20th November in market as per NSE website which indicate secondary market and which normally indicates year end pressure and
India’s export to UAE & U.S forms 24.5% of total exports and Remittance from both countries can be as high as 45%.
Indian Remittance is very important foreign exchange earner and construction workers in Dubai and Gulf region form a major rural income from expatriates, so only whenever Crude moves higher Indian Market has always gone that way. India has highest remittance in the world as per IMF data and already we face problem in U.S with U.S Two US senators having introduced a legislation seeking to prohibit companies that lay off large number of American workers, from subsequently hiring temporary workers (such as tech professionals) from outside the US. The proposed ‘Employ America Act’, if passed, could severely hit tech companies that had resorted to axing jobs during the economic downturn even as they continued to file for H-1B visas. The IT industry has expressed concern over the proposed legislation given its ramifications on businesses. But industry watchers also point out that the possibility of the new legislation being passed on a standalone basis may be somewhat low at a time when the US is slated to look at comprehensive immigration reform next year.
Mobius Says Dubai May Trigger Markets ‘Correction’ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYSFV6DTmk08
v Globally the Us Dollar Index is nearing a crucial resistance area of 76, which if crossed can lead to a significant rally in the greenbuck.
v Indian GDP data on 30th November and India Export & Import data for October will be announced on 1st December will be keenly watched.
To remind Posted on Friday 16th October 2009 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/10/happy-diwali-happy-investing.html
What about this Diwali?
This time around I am not so bullish about the market so we would keep the picks simple. HOTELLEELA, CASTROL, MUNDRAPORT, TATATEA, NTPC, 3IINFO, IGL, GAIL, HINDUNILVR, IFCI would be my bets which look good from 1 year perspective till 2010Diwali. Accumulate in dips. Happy Diwali and Happy Investing!!!
