Outlook for Dec/21 to Dec 31 This week we have a long weekend with Dec-25(Friday) and Dec-28(Monday) being holiday
Nifty after making triple top has broken the range and closed below 5000 level and forming a rounding top where support would come near 4800 and 4806 was low on 27/November and if this happens it would break the rising channel formed from July2009. Nifty’s 4538 also important support and being low in last 79trading days.
Nifty from 1st April have only one day closed below 100EDMA so any 2-3days close below that would be considered negative by indicator analyst.
BSESENSEX-16719, Sensex after making high on 17/October which is high of 2009 didn’t behave like Nifty but make lower high which has given a triangle formation and a break-down has happened and 16600 has been very strong level on closing basis and in last 28trading days we never closed below that. Sensex 15275 Gap-up level has been pending in last 80trading days and that would be important level if market shows weakness.
Nifty & Sensex to regain strength have to trade above 5100 & 17200 respectively and with low volumes expected in coming weeks due to year-end holiday season liquidity will be a problem and NAV boosting can give good gains in stock specific move.
Derivatives indicate weakness and Nifty PCR-Put Call Ratio is 1.16 down from high of 1.45 recorded as high of the month
• Dollar Index as expected has crossed 77 and Crude is also strong with Strong Dollar pushing cost of Oil import putting Inflation pressure which is worrying RBI and Financing ministry.
• Advance tax numbers are mostly muted and we have to wait for the results to come and there has been few disappointing Tax numbers from ICICIBANK, BANKINDIA, HDFCBANK and any RBI measure to tighten would impact BANKS, Realty and Auto as Rate of interest would go up.
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-44859520091219 Bankers expect Dubai World to make a formal request for a standstill on its $26 billion debt at Monday's creditor meeting, but it could be more than a month before banks agree, bankers said on Friday.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=380120 Indian companies engaged in discovery of new drugs have twisted the model as many molecules licensed to foreign collaborators failed to reach the market. This so-called out-licensing strategy has been revised and the domestic companies are conducting a larger part of the initial trials themselves, choosing to license out the molecules much later than they used to.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/markets-raise-eyebrows-at-dlf-caraf-deal-valuations/380036/ DLF Cyber City (a subsidiary of DLF) and Caraf Builders (majority owned by DLF promoters), hasn’t gone down well with the markets.
