OMC stocks breaking down

OIL marketing stocks BPCL, HPCL & IOC can see more selling pressure as reports suggest the government plans to limit its share of fuel subsidy payout to last year's levels despite higher losses suffered by OMCs this year and delay in freeing Diesel prices could hurt.

BPCL Cmp Rs.752 Looks weak and correction can be high we advise caution in this stock @ Current level. Stock has formed lower top and broke trend line support. Now below Rs 740 it can underperform

HINDPETRO Cmp Rs.513 looks correction is due so caution advised. Stock has shown distribution at higher levels with price action constricted in a range and volumes becoming dry, Sustained move below Rs 500 will make this stock reach much lower levels.

Koutons Retail Down freeze

What went wrong in KOUTON?

http://www.capitalmarket.com/if.asp?L=hotpursuit&M=cmedit/story2-0.asp?sno=425835  Koutons Retail India was locked at lower circuit of 20% at Rs 215.85 on BSE on reports credit rating agency ICRA has suspended its "LB+/A4" ratings assigned to Rs 300-crore fund based facilities of the retailer.

A separate media report suggested that Koutons Retail's promoters have pledged shares for the second time in the last three weeks. Koutons promoters, who hold a 63.9% stake in the company, have pledged as much as half of their stock. The company has begun to default on loans, including a facility provided by Kolkata-based Allahabad Bank, according to the report.

Promoters pledging shares

In the last three weeks, the promoters of the company have pledged 12.3 lakh shares. This accounts for over 4% of the existing equity and over 6% of the total promoter holding. As on date, the total shares pledged by the promoters exceed 30% of the existing equity and 48% of the promoter holding.

Stock listed around Rs.500 rallied till Rs.1085 and today closed @ Rs.215 Down freeze and Investor should take informed decision when they select stock as many stock are quoting @ high valuation and as missed out feeling is making investor take lesser known companies.

Warren Buffet has said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. And he has also said In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.

STRTECH breaking out

STRTECH Rs.99.9 is trying to break out from a down trendline which made it an underperformer for the last 3 months. Above Rs 103 the stock can outperform and targets near Rs 110-115 are possible. Yesterday stock closed above short-term moving averages 13, 26, 50 and 100 EMAs crossed and already it trades above 200DMA Rs 91

TINPLATE- Update Tata to merge tinplate

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/09/tinplatetata-value-buy.html  TINPLATE(TATA) Value Buy http://www.tatatinplate.com/  (TATA Group) FV-10 Book Value 42.9 12TTM EPS-7.78

http://cruonline.crugroup.com/SteelandFerroalloys/CRUSteelNews/SteelNewsArticle/tabid/77/ItemID/334244/Default.aspx  

Tata to merge tinplate operations, and end Corus name

27/09/2010

The Tinplate Company of India Limited (TCIL), in which compatriot Tata Steel owns 45%, will be integrated into the Tata Steel Europe ...

http://hindi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/6545697.cms ए के प्रभाकर, स्वतंत्र शेयर विश्लेषक

GLENMARK - near breakout

GLENMARK Rs 291 trades very close to 20-month high Rs 302 and once Rs 300 is crossed this stock can quickly move towards Rs 320-325 as next level. Though stock has not rallied it has been very stable so far and after breakout better rally expected in the stock. Support Rs 284/275

FIRSTSOURCE - Weekly breakout

FSL- FIRSTSOURCE Cmp Rs.28.60 http://www.firstsource.com  ICICIBANK owned company, global provider of business process outsourcing (BPO) services offering a wide range of services across banking and financial services, telecommunications and media and the healthcare industry.

Face value-10 Book Value Rs.23

http://www.vccircle.com/500/news/crisil-buys-pipal-research-from-firstsource-for-1275m  CRISIL Buys Pipal Research From First source For $12.75M  CRISIL has acquired knowledge process outsourcing firm Pipal Research Corporation in a $12.75-million (Rs 58.25 crore) deal. Pipal is majority owned by BPO services major Firstsource Solutions, which picked up a 51% stake in the firm in 2004.

FSL is a weekly Break-Out and 8months high is Rs.33.30 which can be next target above which our FABULOUS-15 Target Rs.38 also can be possible http://www.akprabhakar.com/fabulous15.php

PUNJ LLOYD among rumours and looks very strong

There are rumours that PUNJ LLOYD some kind of stake sale may happen but technically stock is looking very good for 7-9% returns from current levels. This has been and underperformer and can perform now --- CMP Rs 124 and it can reach Rs 140 levels soon.

TECHM & SATYAM to see more upside

TECHMAH & MAHSATYAM look good for 5-8% upmove in days to come as long waited result and merger of the company would clear many doubts, by merger of 2companies would improve business prospects as strength of Mahindra management and multiple vertical and wide client base of MAHsatyam would benefit both companies.

News

Mahindra Satyam will finally come out with accounts for two financial years of 2008-09 and 2009-10 on September 29. The company is expected to announce a roadmap for the merger and integration with Tech Mahindra and likely shift of headquarters from Hyderabad.

Tech Mahindra will initiate its merger with Mahindra Satyam after the latter’s board meeting on September 29 and the process will be completed in 6-8 months, sources told FE on Tuesday. http://www.financialexpress.com/news/tech-msatyam-merger-in-six-months/685516/

TECH MAHINDRA Rs 750 is moving higher with volumes and broke out above short-term down trendline. In current move stock can reach Rs 825-830 levels and one can buy this stock from 3-4 month perspective.

SATYAMCOMP Rs 100 has moved after merger with TECHM news. Stock still looks good for Rs 108-110 targets. It has closed above 200DMA making it an important crossover buy signal.

3i INFOTECH - breakout!

3i INFO (Rs 65) has been an underperformer, but now broken out and upside target of 6-8% is possible. Rs 70 is crucial resistance above which this stock can outperform also.

Sensex View-A.K.Prabhakar

Sensex (19906) we had a view of 18700 as high in 2010 and low of 13000 or below is possible by end 2010. On 09/September/2010 our 18700 levels got breached and in 6trading days Sensex has made a high of 19927. Rally in 14trading days from low of 17819 to high of 19927 which is 2100points average rise of 150 points a day should be one of the fastest after 15months of range bound market.

Final moves of any rally is violent and unpredictable and if this is a Blow-out rally then Sensex 20500 should not be crossed and if that condition holds then Our view can still hold good for the year But till 18700 on downside is not seen this would be a good trading market. But crossing 20500 then we could see the rally extending beyond 22500. 

To remind we had a target of 22500 by 2011December or January 2012 and target of 45000-50000 by 2016 now if we cross 20500 then many calculation would change and we would inform accordingly. Many of targets were given few years in advance and many times we have seen our estimates breach and then coming correct.  In technical’s we deal with probability and never certainty.

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/02/excerpts-from-sunnews-interview.html  Market view from 2010

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/12/what-did-we-recommend-in-2009.html  What did we recommend in 2009-A.K.Prabhakar

SUNTV -Stock in NEWS http://tinyurl.com/2658o2f  Endhiran the Robot to storm worldwide with 2250 prints 1stOctober-Tamil, Telugu and Hindi

GITANJALI short-term breakout

GITANJALI Rs 218 trades close to its 52 week high of Rs 230 and trades above all important moving averages. Stock shows Inverse Head & Shoulders formation where breakout above Rs 221 can target Rs  240-245 in a week.

FABULOUS-15 Update

http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/01/f-trading-futures-that-can-drains-your.html  F&O Trading Futures that can drains your future -Old posting please do read

IDBI has been a great mover in last 5 sessions and now it is +9%, there are many positive rumours on this stock but in addition to that the bank is planning to merge IDBI Gilts with itself and rights issue would also happen in near future to raise more capital. IDBI has paid good advance tax and this is one more positive for the stock and our target would soon be reached. Oil & Gas stocks are in action and MRPL would be stock to watch. REpower has bagged 3 orders and China will make up about a third of SUZLON’s total business by 2015, its chief said, helped by Beijing's strong incentives to promote clean energy, above Rs 57 this stock can be very fast mover. Both Nifty & Sensex have seen sharp run up this week so far as Nifty is +4% already this week with 2 more sessions to go.  5550-5600 is crucial downside support now and until that is not broken up trend can continue. This is now euphoric stage of markets and trailing positions with safe stops is advisable.

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER (Prices in Rs)
Stock Name	Reco Price	CMP	Target	% Weight	% Returns	Action
3IINFOTECH	87	61	118	2	-29	Hold
ADHUNIK MET	110	117	152	2	6	Hold
EKC	156	111	189	2	-29	Hold
EMCO	91	65	130	2	-29	Hold
GLENMARK	278	291	350	2	5	Hold
GUJ NRE COKE	72	65	110	2	-10	Hold
MRPL	78	79	100	2	2	Hold
NEYVELILIG	152	163	196	2	7	Hold
POWERGRID	109	107	141	2	-2	Hold
SUZLON	75	52	140	4	-31	Hold
JUBILANT	325	352	450	2	8	Hold
FSL	30	27	38	2	-11	Hold
IDBI	131	143	170	2	9	Hold
TATAELXI	252	252	320	2	0	Hold
GSPL	98	118	125	2	20	Hold
IFCI	54	62	75	2	15	BP
GIC HOUSING	88	122	150	2	39	BP
GREAVES COT	286	338	352	2	18	BP
SKUMAR	41	49	70	2	20	BP
ABG SHIP	210	270	270	2	29	BP
Total				30	0.14
Add:
Interest @ 6% for 9 months					4.50
Total % Returns					4.64
Annualized Returns %					7.95

• This is just a model portfolio.
• Be just 30% invested and don't do averaging for the sake of that.
• Do not average if 30% dip is not seen after your purchase, averaging should be considered time-wise also.
• At least 2-3 months must pass before you buy again in a dip.
• As we hold a view that Sensex below 13000 in 2010 can be possible so avoid aggressively and leveraged positions.
• This market is a bear market which can cut both ways, it is always difficult to mint money in such market and it is better to be an investor and accumulate. 
• Being correct in market is difficult so we have invested 30% so that in case of market rally we don't miss the opportunities