FABULOUS-15 Monthly Update

Fabulous-15 has returned minus 2.06% so far and looking at market carnage the diversified portfolio has stood the test of correction so far. To repeat the intentions, this portfolio was specifically designed for investment over 1-2 years and as we expect 2010 to be an year of flat to negative returns only select stocks are expected to do well. Nifty has fallen 6% in Jan’2010 and Sensex has logged worst monthly loss after Oct’09; Fabulous-15 has fallen 2.06% average and we have taken profits in ABG SHIP which has balanced our returns so partial profit booking and adding back in dips is advised , others stocks have remained quite resilient and as investors one should accumulate these stocks in such market dips that we have seen recently. Market timing is always difficult and it is in such periods that one becomes aware of the importance of diversified portfolio, the quote of Warren Buffet is so true, “It is when tide goes out one knows who has been swimming naked!” Divide your risk in 15-20 stocks and accumulate is what is required from an investor, going after getting rich quick by leveraged positions has normally made people poorer much quicker.

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER - List Launched on 31-Dec-2009
Stock Name	Reco Price (Rs)	CMP (Rs)	High So Far (Rs)	Target (Rs)	% Returns So Far	Action
3IINFOTECH	87	82	97	118	-6	Hold
ADHUNIK MET	110	112	127	152	2	Hold
EKC	156	132	162	189	-15	Hold
EMCO	91	97	109	130	7	Hold
GIC HOUSING	92	89	94	150	-3	Hold
GLENMARK	278	242	290	350	-13	Hold
GREAVES COT	286	268	303	352	-6	Hold
GSPL	98	91	102	125	-7	Hold
GUJ NRE COKE	80	72	98	110	-10	Hold
IFCI	54	51	60	75	-6	Hold
MRPL	78	78	86	100	0	Hold
NEYVELILIG	152	152	172	196	0	Hold
POWERGRID	109	112	121	141	3	Hold
SKUMAR	41	44	47	70	7	Hold
SUZLON	91	77	95	140	-15	Hold
ABG SHIP	210	270	270	270	29	Profits Taken

GREAVES COTTON, GSPL results have been excellent. Next week PSU stocks like GSPL, MRPL, NEYVELI and POWERGRID can be in action.

FABULOUS-15 News Update:

• Adhunik Metalik reported Q3 results for 31Dec2009 - Rs 15.95Cr Profits, an increase of 188% and Sales Rs 302Cr Vs Rs 229Cr
• Emco Ltd said it posted a net profit of 100.4 million rupees on a net sales of 2.08 billion rupees for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2009.
• GIC HSG FIN standalone numbers for Q3 -Net Profit Rs 155.0mn vs Rs 100.4mn Income from ops Rs737.4mn vs Rs793.8mn
• Glenmark results:- Net profit Rs 940.74mn vs Rs 814.32mn Net Sales Rs 6,416.85mn vs Rs 5,813.89mn
• Greaves Cotton reported a net profit of 326.9 million rupees on net sales of 3.42 billion rupees on a standalone basis for quarter ended December 31, 2009.
• Power Grid Corp said its board gave an in-principle approval for a follow-on public offer of 10 percent of equity. The board also approved investing 2.16 billion rupees for a 1,000 megawatt project to be commissioned in 28 months.
• Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd has announced the Unaudited financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2009. The Company has posted a net profit after tax of Rs 3711.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 2242.50 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 10162.10 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 to Rs 13881.80 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2009.
• Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) has posted a four-fold rise in net profit, at Rs 115.36 crore, for the quarter ended December 31, 2009, the company said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange. The profit for the corresponding quarter in the previous year was Rs 27.64 crore. The firm's total income rose more than two-fold, from Rs 123.28 crore for the year-ago quarter to Rs 271.79 crore for the quarter under review.
• GSPL is in advanced talks with GSPC-Adani consortium for picking up about 25 per cent stake in the proposed 20-MMTPA LNG project at Mundra in Gujarat.
• Consolidated results for 3i Infotech for the nine months ended December 31, 2009: Revenue for the nine months ended December 31, 2009, is Rs.18.36bn, a growth of 8.4% over the corresponding period of the previous year. Net profit for the nine months ended December 31, 2009, is Rs2bn, an increase of 4.8% over the corresponding period of the previous year.

Nifty & Sensex view and January impact on Indian market

Nifty Weekly graph is a break-down from rising wedge where 4530 can be likely support but if Nifty holds 4770 then bounce back till 5100 to 5150 not ruled out the correction has been very fast any recovery or pull back also will be equally fast and OIL & GAS, Power and PSU can lead the rally.

In last 6 year there has been 2major correction one in 2004 and 2008 both topped in January

2004 Sensex made Top on 09/01/2004=6249 & 15/01/2004=6248 almost a double top and after which is crashed in May 2004 to see a low of 4227 0n 17/May/2004 and it took 6months to cross the high again on 01/Dec/2004

2008 Sensex made high on 10/Jan/2008=21206 and from there it corrected till 7697 on 27/Oct/2008 and Sensex has recovered to make a recent high on 06/Jan/2010 which is 17790 in 15months.

In 2009 January Sensex corrected from high of 10469 made on 07/Jan/2009 to 8047 low of March/06/2009.

Investor should understand correction is a part of market and it is here to happen and instead of buying in euphoria always buy when everyone is a seller in market we can never judge the low & high of the index or stock perfectly but systematic investment makes a big difference. Buy in small quantity on a regular basis and only in cash.

Only in cash-Many don’t understand importance of this, 90% of leverage traders lose money to 10% of the brilliant traders and if you notice people doing derivative( F&O or Futures) make fast money to lose it even more faster in the slightest mistake or wrong trade. Why lose good (Hard earned) money on a trade?

In our view Sensex can make new high by 2011/Dec and target by 2016 is 45000 to 50000 which is almost triple in 6years from current level of 16k and by any chance we get a correction till 13k or below we get better average but in case our prediction is wrong also as u r a systematic investor you never lose on opportunity.

Value Pick in next 2years RELIANCE, MRPL, GSPL, MTNL, SAIL, IFCI, IDBI, NEYVELILIG, 3IINFO and GLENMARK and our Faboulous-15 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/01/markets-consolidated-their-gains-this.html  are stock when slowly accumulated would give good gains for investors above 2years.

Update on Telangana and how it haunted Infra companies:-

• Fears on Telangana Issue have become a reality and now companies in Andhra Pradesh are really facing problems shown by results so far. HCC has come out with results for Q3FY10 and HCC reported 10% growth in revenue at Rs900Cr for Q3FY10, which was below many estimates, largely due to slow execution of projects in Andhra Pradesh. 
• HCC witnessed slower execution during the quarter as it lost about Rs100Cr during the last couple of months due to turbulence in the state of Andhra Pradesh leading to payment issues. Currently, the total outstanding receivables from AP are Rs600Cr, out of which Rs260Cr is for the last three months. 
• NAGARJUNA CONST, IVRCL INFRA and many other companies from AP are still to come out with results and they may have faced similar problems like HCC. 
• Technically IVRCL INFRA is looking very weak as the stock has broken support near Rs 330 and now the stock trades below all major moving averages, the stock may find support near Rs 270 or Rs 240 if the downtrend persists.

Previous Posts about Telangana:- 

IVRCL looks bearish http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/12/ivrcl-infra-looks-bearish-avoid.html

Telangana haunts Realty and Infra http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/12/telangana-issue-haunts-infra-and-realty.html

FABULOUS-15 Tracker

After success of Delhi seminar now Kolkata seminar on 6th February Saturday 9:00 AM to 8:00 PM -Contact Mr. Dinesh for details please check the link below- http://bluechips4u.blogspot.com/2010/01/technical-cum-fundamental-seminar-on.html A great opportunity to learn on technicals and fundamentals Rush for early booking. Limited seats

FABULOUS-15 has returned 2.8% so far after 22 days into New Year 2010 and as this list is for investing over 1-2 year period one can accumulate these stocks as market seems to have started a good correction. Any correction that starts at this juncture would be very deep and individual stocks can have steep falls also (even 30-40%). As we are expecting 2010 to be a year of negative to flat returns the correction would be confirming the same but FABULOUS-15 is strictly meant for investors over a long-term period and we advise to be invested just 50% with this list and maintain good cash levels as the fall can be very bad if we break 4940 support levels.

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER - List Launched on 31-Dec-2009
Stock Name	Reco Price (Rs)	CMP (Rs)	High So Far (Rs)	Target (Rs)	% Returns So Far	Action
3IINFOTECH	87	88	97	118	1	Hold
ADHUNIK MET	110	119	127	152	8	Hold
EKC	156	144	162	189	-8	Hold
EMCO	91	100	109	130	10	Hold
GIC HOUSING	92	92	94	150	0	Hold
GLENMARK	278	263	290	350	-5	Hold
GREAVES COT	286	283	303	352	-1	Hold
GSPL	98	95	102	125	-3	Hold
GUJ NRE COKE	80	79	98	110	-1	Hold
IFCI	54	52	60	75	-4	Hold
MRPL	78	80	86	100	3	Hold
NEYVELILIG	152	163	172	196	7	Hold
POWERGRID	109	114	121	141	5	Hold
SKUMAR	41	48	47	70	17	Hold
SUZLON	91	79	95	140	-13	Hold
ABG SHIP	210	270	270	270	29	Profits Taken

Kolkata Seminar, join soon as limited seats available http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/01/kolkata-seminar-on-6-feb-2010.html