Training seminar one day in Mumbai on 02/April/2010 Friday (Holiday) on Techno-Fundamental analysis by A.K.Prabhakar assisted by Mr. Tanmay Gopal and Mr. Miraj Vora. Please contact Tanmay / Miraj for joining. (Click Invitation for a better view)
Saturday, March 27, 2010
FABULOUS-15 Tracker
FABULOUS-15 has closed with negative 1.41% returns and this week GUJNRECOKE has moved up returning 10% from our recommended price. GREAVES COTTON, JUBILANT and ADHUNIK are trading near their respective 52-week highs and these stocks can catch rally soon. Markets have risen for 7 weeks in a row and normally a reaction is expected after such a long stretch but market is always supreme and until 5080 is not broken on downside the trend is expected to remain up. Nifty faces crucial resistance in the form of 5310 which is 2-year high and above that 5500 may be seen. IFCI is looking good and any news about restructuring exercise in the company can take it near to our target easily. We are still invested with just 30% and 70% we hold as cash.
FABULOUS-15 TRACKER (Prices in Rs) | |||||
Stock Name | Reco Price | CMP | Target | % Returns | Action |
3IINFOTECH | 87 | 77 | 118 | -11 | Hold |
ADHUNIK MET | 110 | 120 | 152 | 9 | Hold |
EKC | 156 | 122 | 189 | -22 | Hold |
EMCO | 91 | 83 | 130 | -9 | Hold |
GIC HOUSING | 92 | 86 | 150 | -7 | Hold |
GLENMARK | 278 | 252 | 350 | -9 | Hold |
GREAVES COT | 286 | 299 | 352 | 5 | Hold |
GSPL | 98 | 88 | 125 | -10 | Hold |
GUJ NRE COKE | 80 | 88 | 110 | 10 | Hold |
IFCI | 54 | 52 | 75 | -4 | Hold |
MRPL | 78 | 75 | 100 | -4 | Hold |
NEYVELILIG | 152 | 148 | 196 | -3 | Hold |
POWERGRID | 109 | 106 | 141 | -3 | Hold |
SUZLON | 91 | 72 | 140 | -21 | Hold |
JUBILANT | 325 | 346 | 430 | 6 | Hold |
SKUMAR | 41 | 49 | 70 | 20 | BP |
ABG SHIP | 210 | 270 | 270 | 29 | BP |
Total Returns (%) | -1.41 | ||||
*Adhunik Power and Natural Resources, the power subsidiary of Adhunik Metaliks, has raised a Rs 12.28bn three-tranche loan, via book runner SBI Caps. The proceeds will be used to construct a coal-based thermal power plant of 270MW. The facility pays 50bp lower than State Bank’s advance rate of 11.25%.
Join Mumbai Techno-Fundamental Seminar http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/03/techno-fundamnetal-training-seminar-in.html
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Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Dollar Index hits 10Months high
Dollar Index hits 10months high as Euro corrected to 10month low against the dollar after ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal, fuelling more concerns about the euro zone's stability. European shares fell on Wednesday and Commodity started to correct with Crude, Gold and industrial metals declined.
The dollar index hit a 10-month high of 81.732 as the downgrade and jitters ahead of the EU summit prompted traders to sell currencies perceived to be higher risk for the safe-haven dollar, which also pushed it to a one-month high versus the yen. Diminishing risk appetite sent the MSCI world equity index down 0.5 percent to 305.32, while U.S. crude oil prices fell 1.6 percent. http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-47172620100324
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axcFWcIiCP4g&pos=2 Euro Weakens on Greece, Portugal Debt Concern; Commodities Drop
What Is Dollar Index And Why Is Their So Much Importance To It? http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/11/what-is-dollar-index-and-why-is-their.html
Risk factors if Dollar were to get strong:
Dollar Index from high of 120 in Jan2002 has been correcting and saw a low of 70 in March2008 and strength in Dollar is not because U.S economy is strong but problem in Europe and failure of alternate currency is a bigger problem. This would mean that cheap cost Dollar investment abroad will see a square-off leading to Dollar carry trade and Commodity stocks will face the pressure immediate.
Nifty not crossing 5310 which is January 2010 high and moving below 5080 would be first sign weakness in market.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
IPL Cricket Break-out INDIACEMENT
India being a cricket crazy nation, Indian Premium League (IPL) team bids have increased. With two new teams joining the Indian Premium League (IPL) bandwagon for the total of USD 703 million, the enterprise value (EV) for all the franchisees has increased. The highest bid was for Pune franchisee which was won by the Sahara Adventures Sports for USD 370 million.
`Chennai Super King` IPL team held by India Cements has given a Price-Volume Break-out from its trading range and short term target can be Rs.150-155.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/ipl-brand-value-doubles-to-413-bn-brand-finance/89167/on Quick fire cricket format Indian Premier League's (IPL) brand value has more than doubled to $4.13 billion (over Rs 18,000 crore), while 'Chennai Super Kings' has emerged the most valued franchise this year, says a study.
Open interest in NSE derivatives hits all time high of Rs 1,34,466 crore, previous high for this data set was recorded at the peak of the previous bull market on January 18, 2007, that was Rs 1,31,031 crore. With just one more day for derivative settlement to end as Wednesday 24th March is a holiday traders have to keep this in mind.
The U.S health bill promotes the use of generic drugs that are often one tenth the price of the original version, but has the same impact While generics form only 19-20% of the US market today, they are likely to make up nearly 46-47% by 2013 Among the 14 countries that can offer low-cost drugs, India and China were the only two that have enough scale to serve the US market-ET
Lupin, ranked eighth, and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories at 10th position are the only two Indian generic companies among the top 10 generic players in the US, which is dominated by players like Israel-based Teva Pharmaceuticals and US-based Mylan Pharma.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Nifty View after RBI rate hike
Nifty after correcting from 5310 high in 2years made in January 6th 2010 is finding it difficult to cross the January high and mostly if Jan high if not crossed that year can be possibly negative year. But as of now there is no weakness till Nifty doesn’t closes below 5100 on a week when Derivative settlement ends, PCR @ 1.68 has been one of the highest and VIX @ 17 is lowest since inception so any volatility will be hard to trade. 300points move can be possible in the market this week can it be 5500 or 4900 will be interesting to watch.
RBI has hiked rate and there are talks that one more hike is possible on 20th April 2010 when RBI policy meet happens and this is first time Global market has reacted and Indian ADR saw selling with ICICIBANK seeing 3% downside. RBI move would be sentiment dampener for REALTY, Auto and Banking stocks and many weak stock will see selling. http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=22208
Pharma Stock can be good as Health care bill in U.S is likely passed as per indication JUBILANT, DISHMAN, GLENMARK, CIPLA are few stock I like for investment.
Greece has set a deadline for Euro Zone that is 25 to 26March to draw a bailout package for them and if Greece fails to do so they will have no option but to turn to IMF and seek help as they need 10 billion euro ($14 billion) to restructure its debt which is due by April and May. Germany the biggest and one of the two growing economy is finding difficult to pass the bill in their parliament to aid Greece as people in Germany not willing to work harder for Greece negligence. IMF giving a bailout package will violate the Lisbon treaty by Greece and eventually can break the union.
7 US banks bite the dust in a day, 37 failures in 2010 http://www.ddinews.gov.in/Business/Business+-+Headlines/us+bank.htm A staggering 37 American banks have folded up in 2010, or an average of 12 entities going bust every month. The US has seen 15 bank failures, out of which seven collapsed on 19th March alone. Despite signs of economic recovery, high unemployment levels are resulting in increased defaults, in turn severely hitting the small and medium banks.
BEIJING will retaliate if the United States declares China a currency manipulator and imposes trade sanctions, commerce minister Chen Deming said on Sunday, firing the latest salvo in a spat over the value of the yuan. Chen again accused Washington of politicising the issue ahead of an April 15 deadline for the US. Treasury to rule whether China is unfairly holding down its exchange rate to gain a competitive edge in global markets.
Cipla will replace its peer Sun Pharma on the BSE benchmark Sensex from May 3. BSE’s Index Committee, at a meeting held on March 19, decided to revise the composition of indices, the BSE said in a statement.
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Mumbai Techno-Fundamnetal Training seminar
FABULOUS-15 Tracker
Stock Name | Reco Price | CMP | Target | % Returns | Action |
3IINFOTECH | 87 | 80 | 118 | -8 | Hold |
ADHUNIK MET | 110 | 123 | 152 | 12 | Hold |
EKC | 156 | 120 | 189 | -23 | Hold |
EMCO | 91 | 85 | 130 | -7 | Hold |
GIC HOUSING | 92 | 86 | 150 | -7 | Hold |
GLENMARK | 278 | 246 | 350 | -12 | Hold |
GREAVES COT | 286 | 301 | 352 | 5 | Hold |
GSPL | 98 | 88 | 125 | -10 | Hold |
GUJ NRE COKE | 80 | 80 | 110 | 0 | Hold |
IFCI | 54 | 51 | 75 | -6 | Hold |
MRPL | 78 | 75 | 100 | -4 | Hold |
NEYVELILIG | 152 | 159 | 196 | 5 | Hold |
POWERGRID | 109 | 108 | 141 | -1 | Hold |
SUZLON | 91 | 75 | 140 | -18 | Hold |
JUBILANT | 325 | 347 | 430 | 7 | Hold |
SKUMAR | 41 | 49 | 70 | 20 | BP |
ABG SHIP | 210 | 270 | 270 | 29 | BP |
Total Returns (%) | -1.06 | ||||
FABULOUS-15 has returned negative -1.06% so far but individual stock performance has been very good this week. GREAVES COTTON, ADHUNIK and JUBILANT have outperformed and look good for more gains. GREAVES COTTON is near 52-week high and is a weekly breakout where our target of Rs 352 can happen in short-term also, JUBILANT major breakout is awaited above Rs 350 and once stock settles above that Rs 400 would be near-term possible. Market is showing weakness after rising for 6 weeks on trot and if 5310 above move is not seen, much deeper correction can happen very soon. RBI has hiked repo and reverse repo rates by 25bps and BANKS would be negatively impacted. FABULOUS-15 has been designed expecting a negative market this year and so far it has been in tandem with the objective where two stocks have given very good returns also while others would perform soon. ONMOBILE is worth a buy as the company would benefit by 3G connectivity. http://tanmaygopal.blogspot.com/2010/03/onmobile-rs-392-buy-for-targets-above.html
GREAVES COTTON - Weekly Breakout:
http://www.greavescotton.com/Main/index.aspx
Greaves leads the field in the manufacture of Diesel Engines (10-1000 HP) used for diesel generating sets, barges, pilot launches, compressors, construction equipment, cranes, forklifts and various defence applications. Greaves supplies engines to a host of applications like marine, agricultural, construction and other industrial applications. Highly fuel efficient, Greaves lightweight diesel engines are ideal for Automotive applications like 2-wheelers, 3-wheelers and four wheeled small commercial vehicles. Piaggio, has been GCs biggest customer and it has entered into a 8 year deal with GC for supply of three wheeler diesel engines, starting April 2010. And GC will be the single source supplier to Piaggio.
The stock has broken out on weekly graph and target of Rs 352 looks to happen very soon
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