Monday, March 22, 2010

Nifty View after RBI rate hike

Nifty after correcting from 5310 high in 2years made in January 6th 2010 is finding it difficult to cross the January high and mostly if Jan high if not crossed that year can be possibly negative year. But as of now there is no weakness till Nifty doesn’t closes below 5100 on a week when Derivative settlement ends, PCR @ 1.68 has been one of the highest and VIX @ 17 is lowest since inception so any volatility will be hard to trade. 300points move can be possible in the market this week can it be 5500 or 4900 will be interesting to watch.


RBI has hiked rate and there are talks that one more hike is possible on 20th April 2010 when RBI policy meet happens and this is first time Global market has reacted and Indian ADR saw selling with ICICIBANK seeing 3% downside. RBI move would be sentiment dampener for REALTY, Auto and Banking stocks and many weak stock will see selling. http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=22208

Pharma Stock can be good as Health care bill in U.S is likely passed as per indication JUBILANT, DISHMAN, GLENMARK, CIPLA are few stock I like for investment.

Greece has set a deadline for Euro Zone that is 25 to 26March to draw a bailout package for them and if Greece fails to do so they will have no option but to turn to IMF and seek help as they need 10 billion euro ($14 billion) to restructure its debt which is due by April and May. Germany the biggest and one of the two growing economy is finding difficult to pass the bill in their parliament to aid Greece as people in Germany not willing to work harder for Greece negligence. IMF giving a bailout package will violate the Lisbon treaty by Greece and eventually can break the union.
7 US banks bite the dust in a day, 37 failures in 2010 http://www.ddinews.gov.in/Business/Business+-+Headlines/us+bank.htm  A staggering 37 American banks have folded up in 2010, or an average of 12 entities going bust every month. The US has seen 15 bank failures, out of which seven collapsed on 19th March alone. Despite signs of economic recovery, high unemployment levels are resulting in increased defaults, in turn severely hitting the small and medium banks.

BEIJING will retaliate if the United States declares China a currency manipulator and imposes trade sanctions, commerce minister Chen Deming said on Sunday, firing the latest salvo in a spat over the value of the yuan. Chen again accused Washington of politicising the issue ahead of an April 15 deadline for the US. Treasury to rule whether China is unfairly holding down its exchange rate to gain a competitive edge in global markets.
Cipla will replace its peer Sun Pharma on the BSE benchmark Sensex from May 3. BSE’s Index Committee, at a meeting held on March 19, decided to revise the composition of indices, the BSE said in a statement.