Sugar Sector & Dollar index given in Mumbai Seminar

http://www.youtube.com/user/akprabhakar#p/u/0/Lz54WIe93eM  Video of seminar taken in Mumbai one month before .... Sugar Sector & Dollar index view given then

http://www.youtube.com/user/akprabhakar#p/u/1/VTbcpcTTo_Y Dollar index

INVESTOR MEET IN NASIK ON 04-APR-2010:

Investor Meet was very popular and main attraction was Q&A Session where almost all the queries got answered by Mr A K Prabhakar and Tanmay G Purohit. Investors were made aware of common mistakes in Trading/ Investing and F&O along with psychological factors that affect positions adversely. Indian market outlook was also given where Investors were made aware of the growth contributors for India. Mr Prabhakar talked about stocks for long-term and the event was covered very well by media also.

"Risk must be taken in Life and Stock Market also - A K Prabhakar" - Lokmat

"Investors themselves need to study markets" - Gavkari

"Good returns follow good analysis - A K Prabhakar" - Sakal

Videos of our seminars http://www.youtube.com/user/akprabhakar

Nifty & Sensex view towards April settlement

Nifty (5308) is trading near last month settlement close 5296 and this month hasn’t seen any major move High 5399 and low 5160 moving in tight narrow band and result flow has been good, but market has discounted the positive and no major follow up buying is witnessed. Nifty has retracted only 74% of the fall from 5399 to 5160 and with retail participation totally missing Nifty below 5240 would see fresh correction with weak Global market, fresh up-move possible only if Nifty sustains 5340.

Weak Stock based on Derivative-MCLEODRUSSEL, BEL, RENUKA, TECHMAH, PUNJLLYOD, FORTIS, MARUTI, SAIL, JSWSTEEL, EDUCOMP, RELIANCE, BHARTIARTL, ACC, ABNUVO, SIEMENS, HEROHONDA, RANBAXY.

Strong Stock based on Derivative-TITAN, TATACHEM, JPPOWER, LITL, GMRINFRA, RELINFRA, INDIANB, ANDHRABANK and POWERGRID

Above mentioned Derivative Data is just a view based on Derivative data so no advice is given.

Sensex (17690) has closed negative after 5days of positive, this index has been trading in a rising channel and below 17570 the channel will get broken decisively and any close below 17500 with a Gap-Down in Sensex would be negative for markets as recovery has failed.

Thanks to Angela Merkel, nearly everything about the euro zone is different now http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-euro-zone-no-longer-an-irrevocable-construct-2010-04-27?dist=afterbell  

Standard and Poor's slashed Greek debt to junk status on Tuesday and also downgraded Portugal, as investors worried political pressures could block a multi-billion euro bailout of Greece. http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-48041620100427

Government wins parliament vote; reform doubts remain http://in.reuters.com/article/topNews/idINIndia-48036720100427  

Fabulous-15 Update

FABULOUS-15 is +0.83% and Nifty was flat this week, it started weak after Goldman Sachs worries hit markets but Nifty took support at 5160 and showed resilience as compared to other global indices.  EMCO and ADHUNIK MET are showing strength and these two stocks may reach targets very soon while NEYVELI has shown positive formations this week. NHPC, ONMOBILE and IDBI can be replacements for these stocks but we will try to exit first and then take bet on new stocks as it is still advisable to remain just 30% invested. F&O expiry can make markets volatile but 5200 looks difficult to be broken this week and expiry may happen near 5400 and above. For results announced by 174 companies so far, Sales growth is 56% while Profit growth is 28% driven by lower interest costs by 13% and depreciation charges are up 58% which have boosted cash profits, much important results are to be seen next week which can give a better picture. IMD (Indian Met Dept) has forecast normal monsoon rains this year and it can be a soothing factor for the farm sector but best is discounted by the market and stock-specific approach is advisable.

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER (Prices in Rs)
Stock Name	Reco Price	CMP	Target	% Returns	Action
3IINFOTECH	87	76	118	-13	Hold
ADHUNIK MET	110	127	152	15	Hold
EKC	156	117	189	-25	Hold
EMCO	91	95	130	4	Hold
GIC HOUSING	92	89	150	-3	Hold
GLENMARK	278	269	350	-3	Hold
GSPL	98	93	125	-5	Hold
GUJ NRE COKE	80	85	110	6	Hold
IFCI	54	50	75	-7	Hold
MRPL	78	76	100	-3	Hold
NEYVELILIG	152	151	196	-1	Hold
POWERGRID	109	109	141	0	Hold
SUZLON	91	71	140	-22	Hold
JUBILANT	325	332	430	2	Hold
FSL	30	31	38	3	Hold
GREAVES COT	286	338	352	18	BP
SKUMAR	41	49	70	20	BP
ABG SHIP	210	270	270	29	BP
Total Returns (%)				0.83

RBI policy to benefit Infrastructure stocks

The RBI has hiked the repo, reverse repo and CRR rates by 25bps each, below market expectations where 50basis point hike was widely anticipated. Now there is a probability of an inter-policy rate hike before the next policy meet in July. Infrastructure stock would be the major beneficiary in this credit policy.

Non-SLR bonds linked to infrastructure activities can be included under the held-to-maturity (HTM) category of a bank if the residual holding period is more than seven years. This is expected to boost the demand for infrastructure loans as banks can now park the extra liquidity in higher yielding bonds without worrying about their interest rate sensitivity and rates also can drop by 50basis point.

The minimum provisioning requirement for unsecured substandard infrastructure loans has been reduced to 15% from 20%. Bank credit will soon flow to build infrastructure in the country The central bank’s decision to treat annuities and toll collection rights under build-operate-transfer (BOT) road and highway projects as tangible securities has also come as a major relief to infrastructure companies.

Stock like IRB, GMRINFRA, GVKPIL, LITL, HCC, IVRCL, NOIDATOLL, NCC, LT, RELINACE INFRA, MANINFRA, ARSSINFRA, SREI, PATELENG can benefit in long term I doubt a short term reaction.

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/banking/infrastructure-sector-set-receive-291  Infrastructure sector set to receive

RBI set in motion the process of allotting bank licences to private sector players and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/rbi-setsball-rollingnew-branch-licences/392552/

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/more_from_eyjafjallajokull.html  Pictures of ash from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano which continued to keep European airspace shut down over the weekend

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-47818720100419  Volcano market impact moves far beyond airlines

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-47857820100420  North Korea is preparing for a third atomic test that may come in May or June, South Korean broadcaster YTN reported on Tuesday

Some Paulson clients mull withdrawing money – WSJ http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-47862020100421

http://www.livemint.com/2010/04/20183327/IMF-warns-sovereign-risk-could.html  IMF warns sovereign risk could prolong crisis, the concern is that investors will demand higher interest rates to buy government debt, driving up borrowing costs for both the public and private sector

CHART OF THE DAY: Now YOU Can Understand How The Goldman Abacus Deal Worked http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-abacus-2007-ac1-structure-2010-4?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29

Indian market Outlook Nifty view

Goldman Sachs Impact on Stock & Commodity market http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com/2010/04/goldman-sachs-impact-on-stock-commodity.html

Market correction never inform before they come it almost happen when most of the investor become confident about market, this weekend had many noises and traders would be worried after they saw SGX-Nifty down 70Points. Goldman Sachs, IPL Cricket leading to many storms and IRDA vs. SEBI conflict from Diwali we have been writing this year can be year of negative as many investors after seeing 80% above returns are aggressive to get same kind of returns and it is difficult to give same kind of return. We have been holding only 30% as investment and 70% as cash as we had a lower target of 13,000 in Sensex in this year we can never be right but it is important to avoid mistake. http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/04/ulips-impact-on-indian-stock-market.html

Nifty is trading in a range of 5200-4800 in last 7months and this Index gives a break-out and corrects 10-12% and again moves up but problem is only Index is doing that, many 2nd and 3rd line stock where many investors are already struck and there is no respite. So I would advise caution if Nifty trades below 5200

Goldman Sachs issue can become more complicated and below I have given so many links with news which would give better insight as there are many aspects, U.K and Germany which are having election can come heavily on GS as many European banks have lost money. Hedge fund regulation and regulating derivative market can lead to commodity correction mainly in Gold, Crude and Copper where speculative activity has been high. On May 1st Berkshire's annual shareholders meeting in Omaha which will be closely watched for Mr. Warren Buffet comment  Goldman Sachs Holdings in India http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/will-indian-investors-bearbruntgoldman`s-fraud_452273.html 

ANALYSIS - Goldman CDO case could be tip of iceberg http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-47771020100417

(Reuters) - Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Sunday he wanted Britain's financial watchdog to investigate U.S. bank Goldman Sachs after it was charged with fraud by U.S. regulators. http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-47787420100418

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Sunday he was confident there was enough political unity on Capitol Hill for the U.S. Senate to forge a strong financial regulatory bill despite differences over some parts of it. http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-47789120100418

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aWZfZMs6CsJo  Copper Prices Tumble as SEC Sues Goldman Sachs, Dollar Climbs.

U.K., Germany Pile Pressure on Goldman Sachs After Fraud Suit http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aE82mhgRJDdI  Germany’s financial regulator, Bafin, asked the SEC for details on the suit, a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel said. Politicians that were forced to bail out their banks during the financial crisis are turning on Goldman, which critics say helped caused the turmoil and profited from it. The European Union is also probing Goldman’s role in arranging swaps for Greece that may have masked the country’s budget deficit.

Berkshire's annual shareholders meeting in Omaha on May 1st, it will be interesting to hear what Mr. Warren Buffet has to say about today's developments when he answers questions. Buffett's sterling reputation for integrity is very important to him. http://www.cnbc.com/id/36607263

Goldman Could Trigger Market Correction: Jim Rogers http://www.cnbc.com/id/36616382  

BEL, FORTIS, PUNJLLYOD, MCLEODRUSS, MCDOWELL-N, DCHL, TECHM, M&M, DRREDDY, SAIL, TRIVENI, INDIAINFO, RANBAXY, ONGC, CIPLA, MARUTI, KOTAKBANK, RELIANCECAPITAL, ORCHIDCHEM, GRASIM and A.C.C are few F&O stocks which looks weak as per derivative data so caution is advised in short term position.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNSmRVxms8jg&pos=1