Nifty has broken away from previous high made on 6th January2010 and made 25months high of 5329 and corrected for 2days and in the rally from 4675 2day has been the correction it has taken in last 35trading days and any correction below 5170 only should be considered weak. Nifty rally can be limited to 5370 or 5450 and if one were to see the Risk to reward ratio it is not favorable so investors are shying away from markets as declining stock are out numbering advance in spite of Index recovery for low of 4675.
Sensex has formed a Double top 17790 on 6th January and 17793 on 29th March which is a double Top on Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts. Today being 1st of the financial year some buying is expected but till we don’t close above 17800 I would be worried about bigger correction and below 17300 on closing basis only real weakness will be seen. Traders are losing money in last 3months and dull market would force investor also to book profit before INFOSYS result on 13th April.
Outlook: FY2010 returns highest in 5 years and Market had a good quarterly and monthly closing. Quarterly basis it was 5th positive quarterly close in Nifty and 4th positive close in Sensex and this has been first time in history of Nifty we have seen 5positive quarterly close. Oil price spikes to 17-month peak on weak dollar with CAIRN nearing its 52week high of Rs.309 above which all time high Rs.342 can be near term target, rising Crude and commodity prices will have impact on growing global economies soon as the recovery we have seen is on Stimulus and lower raw material cost. Whenever we see highest return then expectation runs high while performance becomes low normally this kind of situation leads to euphoria or correction happens due to any unforeseen event.
Mumbai seminar on 02/April/2010 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2010/03/techno-fundamnetal-training-seminar-in.html
India's industrial output in February is expected to have grown 16% year-on-year, Industry Secretary said on Wednesday. The output in January grew an annual 16.7%.
Sugar output in India, the world’s biggest user, may jump as much as 26% this year as late rain improve cane yields in the nation’s biggest growing regions, a producers’ group said.
India's overall BoP surplus stood at USD 1.77 bn in Q3 FY10 (quarter ending December 2009) as compared to a deficit of USD 17.88 bn in the corresponding quarter last fiscal year. There was a net accretion to foreign exchange reserves of USD 11.3 bn in the current fiscal year till date (April-December 2009).
Metal stocks Caution one Reason can be China over heating but higher Metal prices also will slow economy which has built on fragile Stimulus package Globally. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/03/31/stories/2010033152910600.htm China melts down.... All of a sudden, China is out of favour with some big name investors, like Mr Marc Faber. Mr Jim Chanos, a well-known hedge fund manager, thinks disaster is lurking.
