Maoists in India Blow Up Pipelines, Putting $78 Billion at Risk

Maoist activity in seven eastern and central states is threatening at least $78 billion in natural-resource projects, brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets estimates. Beneath this region lies the ore in the Bailadila mines; 40 billion of India’s 46 billion tons of proven coal reserves; bauxite for aluminum; tin; and even diamonds. India’s expansion -- and its attempt to catch up to China in industrial prowess -- depends on unlocking this bounty.

• At the heart of the Bailadila Hills in central India lie 1.1 billion tons of raw ore so pure and plentiful that half a century after miners first hacked at it with pickaxes, it remains the richest, and one of the largest, iron deposits on the planet.
• Half hidden even to Indians, some 10,000 Maoists fighting over stretches of mineral-laden land hold a Portugal-sized swath of India known as the Red Corridor in their grip. From an area they call the Dandakaranya Regional Zone and neighboring forests, the rebels run their own schools and clinics, print their own books, fly their own flags -- and are stepping up their attacks.
• Maoists have some degree of influence in 220 of the nation’s 626 districts, the government estimates.
• “Try and understand, sir: What we want is a total eradication of the Indian government,” a man who says he’s involved with the Naxalites’ political wing said in a May interview with Bloomberg Markets in Jharkhand state. “A total eradication of the multinationals,” continued the man, who declined to have his name printed because he says he’s wanted by police. “Only then can we build a new society.”

Read whole story : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-29/maoists-in-india-blow-up-pipelines-as-78-billion-in-resources-threatened.html

Nifty Fancy Top 5477

Nifty has broken 5400 which was holding for last many days and now 5350 becomes very important support to hold this up trend. A close below 5350 would indicate short to intermediate term players have to take exit from this market and market may start another corrective wave downwards. Nifty has made 5477 which is a fancy top in my view and normally after such a top big corrections are seen. We are yet to break this level on higher side; if that doesn't happen and Nifty breaks 5350 on closing basis we may see levels below 5200 very soon. I have a view of 13000 as low in Sensex for the year 2010-(Possibly by Oct2010) and crossing of 18700 on closing basis for 3-4days would only we should revisit the calculations. Q1 performance has been poor so far and Net Profits are down 11% this quarter which indicates investors may turn nervous http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Company/Earnings/earnings/75410.cms.

Fabulous-15 Update

We have taken profits in IFCI at Rs. 62 which has returned 15% and long-term target (2-3year perspective) can be Rs 100-120 for this stock as well, but looking at overall market structure we have taken a safe view as CASH is KING now. Our investment in FABULOUS-15 is now just 28% with 13 stocks and 72% cash would be very handy if tough time strikes. Result season is almost near its end and news so far hasn’t been soothing, Sales for the 496 companies announcing results so far have risen by 18.5% while their Net Profits have dipped by 14.1% (Source- Capital Market). A de-growth in Net Profits at such a time when Indices are hitting 30-month highs is a nasty negative news and any downgrades on Indian companies won’t do any good for markets from here on. Investors have to be doubly cautious if we end this earnings season the way we have witnessed as P/E would rise; we already are costly as compared to other emerging markets and compared to US markets as well. Nifty not crossing 5477 and breaking 5350 would start fresh correction.

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER (Prices in Rs)
Stock Name	Reco Price	CMP	Target	% Weight	% Returns	Action
3IINFOTECH	87	65	118	2	-25	Hold
ADHUNIK MET	110	119	152	2	8	Hold
EKC	156	130	189	2	-17	Hold
EMCO	91	74	130	2	-19	Hold
GLENMARK	278	285	350	2	3	Hold
GSPL	98	102	125	2	4	Hold
GUJ NRE COKE	72	64	110	2	-11	Hold
MRPL	78	80	100	2	3	Hold
NEYVELILIG	152	155	196	2	2	Hold
POWERGRID	109	101	141	2	-7	Hold
SUZLON	75	59	140	4	-21	Hold
JUBILANT	325	357	450	2	10	Hold
FSL	30	26	38	2	-13	Hold
IFCI	54	62	75	2	15	BP
GIC HOUSING	88	122	150	2	39	BP
GREAVES COT	286	338	352	2	18	BP
SKUMAR	41	49	70	2	20	BP
ABG SHIP	210	270	270	2	29	BP
Total				28	0.31
Add:
Interest @ 6% for 7 months					3.50
Total % Returns					3.81
Annualized Returns %					6.54

• This is just a model portfolio.
• Be just 28% invested and don't do averaging for the sake of that.
• Do not average if 30% dip is not seen after your purchase, averaging should be considered time-wise also.
• At least 2-3 months must pass before you buy again in a dip.
• As we hold a view that Sensex below 13000 in 2010 can be possible so avoid aggressively and leveraged positions.
• This market is a bear market which can cut both ways, it is always difficult to mint money in such market and it is better to be an investor and accumulate.
• Being correct in market is difficult so we have invested 28% so that in case of market rally we don't miss the opportunities.

FORTIS breaks out on Khajanah offer

Fortis Healthcare rose as much as 4.6 percent on Monday, after sources told Reuters Malaysian state investor Khazanah was poised to offer to buy all outstanding shares of Singapore's Parkway Holdings, bettering Fortis' offer.

Fortis is likely to tender entire shareholding in Khazanah offer, reports CNBC-TV18 quoting sources.
Fortis Healthcare, a hospital chain promoted by former Ranbaxy owners Malvinder Mohan Singh and Shivinder, holds nearly 25% stake in Parkway. The average price of acquisition was USD 3.56 per share for Fortis. The healthcare major is likely to make over USD 100 million profit post tendering. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/fortis-may-back-outparkway-bid-sources-_472255.html

IF FORTIS makes this $100mn gain its profits would be very high, whole year FY10 their profits were Rs 30Cr only and Revenue Rs 209Cr

The stock has broken out and looks good for 7-9% rally from current levels, CMP Rs 159

NHPC - very good investment

Investors looking at 3-4 year perspective can look at NHPC as a very good investment and safe stock to accumulate even in correcting markets. The stock trades near Rs 31 and is now included in Derivative Segment of NSE as well.
About the company: http://www.nhpcindia.com/

NHPC Limited (Formerly known as National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Ltd.), A Govt. of India Enterprise, was incorporated in the year 1975 with an authorised capital of Rs. 2000 million and with an objective to plan, promote and organise an integrated and efficient development of hydroelectric power in all aspects.   Later on NHPC expanded its objects to include development of power in all its aspects through conventional and non-conventional sources in India and abroad.
At present, NHPC is a Mini Ratna Category-I Enterprise of the Govt. of India with an authorised share capital of Rs. 1,50,000 Million . With an investment  base of over Rs. 3,17,000 Million Approx., NHPC is among the TOP TEN companies in the country in terms of investment. 
More about the company :http://www.nhpcindia.com/English/Scripts/AboutUs_TheCompany.aspx
Joint Venturs of NHPC: http://www.nhpcindia.com/English/Scripts/Projects_JointVenture.aspx

NHPC Power Stations

S No.	Project	State	Installed Capacity(MW)	Total Capacity (MW)	Year Of Commission
1	Baira Siul	Himachal Pradesh	3 * 60	180	1981
2	Loktak **	Manipur	3 * 35	105	1983
3	Salal	Jammu & Kashmir	6 * 115	690	1987
4	Tanakpur ***	Uttarakhand	3 * 40	120	1992
5	Chamera - I	Himachal Pradesh	3 * 180	540	1994
6	Uri - I	Jammu & Kashmir	4 * 120	480	1997
7	Rangit	Sikkim	3 * 20	60	1999
8	Chamera - II	Himachal Pradesh	3 * 100	300	2004
9	Indira Sagar*	Madhya Pradesh	8 * 125	1000	2005
10	Dhauliganga - I	Uttarakhand	4 * 70	280	2005-06
11	Dulhasti	Jammu & Kashmir	3 * 130	390	2006-07
12	Omkareshwar *	Madhya Pradesh	8 * 65	520	2007
13	Teesta - V	Sikkim	3 * 170	510	2008
			Total	5175

* NHDC - A Joint venture between NHPC & Govt. of Madhya Pradesh

**	Three units (3x35 MW) of the power station have been temporarily derated to a total of 90 MW (3x30 MW) at our request by the CEA until December 31, 2008; March 31, 2009 and November 30, 2009 respectively by way of its letter no. CEA/PLG/DM/545(Derating)/Loktak/2008 dated July 3, 2008. We have further requested from the CEA by way of our letter no. NH/O&M/LOK/01/2588-90 dated June 12, 2009 an extension of the derating for all three units until July 15, 2009, February 28, 2010 and June 30, 2010 respectively.
***	Derated to 94.2 MW from September 1996.
****	Sewa-II - Unit-I and Unit-III are commissioned on 29.06.2010 and 02.07.2010 respectively and Unit-II likely to be commissioned shortly. The total capacity is 5255 (MW) as on date.

Under Construction Projects

S No.	Project	State	Installed Capacity(MW)	Total Capacity (MW)
1	Parbati - II	Himachal Pradesh	4 * 200	800
2	Sewa - II	Jammu & Kashmir	3 * 40	120
3	Subansiri (Lower)	Assam	8 * 250	2000
4	Uri-II	Jammu & Kashmir	4 * 60	240
5	Chamera-III	Himachal Pradesh	3 * 77	231
6	Teesta Low Dam - III	West Bangal	4 * 33	132
7	Kishenganga	Jammu & Kashmir	3 * 110	330
8	Teesta Low Dam - IV	West Bangal	4 * 40	160
9	Parbati - III	Himachal Pradesh	4 * 130	520
10	Nimmo-Bazgo	Jammu & Kashmir	3 * 15	45
11	Chutak	Jammu & Kashmir	4 * 11	44
			Total	4622

The stock is a new entrant on Indian bourses and so far not even a year has passed for price history so giving Technical view on the stock is difficult. But by  action seen so far the stock has been consolidating and once Rs 37 is breached on higher side, better momentum can take prices further. This stock is for investors and accumulation is advised.