Friday, July 16, 2010

Definition of bear market

Bear Market doesn’t have a clear definition but few available definitions say that market which corrects 20% or more is bear Market. One more definition says Market which is moving in a range of 10-20% for very long time is also called Bear market. Indian Market from 2003-2008 was a clear Bull market.

But from September2009 where it made a High 5087 if you add 10% it is 5600 and 10% downside is 4580 now we are in July2010 almost 11months Indian market has been trading in narrow range with Volumes dropping and investors and traders losing money this is also called Bear market. Monthly Graph clearly shows a rising wedge in rising market which can be negative.

In a calculation I have done more than 300Stocks traded in NSE which had average volumes of less than 25000shares from September 2009 to March 2010 which are low equity base illiquid stocks which has given multi fold returns now there are called Multi baggers this happen when Index doesn’t move much and large caps are also confined to a range.

Indian market for the major bull market from 2003-2008 Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, Micro-Cap and Penny stocks never rallied from 2006 and rally and euphoria in these stocks have been ground rules for any Bull market to turn into Bear market now after January 2010 only we are seeing a major rally which reminds me of DOT.COM where SILVERLINE, DSQSOFTWARE, PENTAMEDIA and many more….. all rallied to great heights of a few thousand rupees but later not to be listed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend#Bear_market Another type of secondary trend is called a bear market rally (or "sucker's rally") which consist of an market price increase of 10% to 20%. A bear market rally is an upward movement that is not large enough to be a bull market (ex post). Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei 225 has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.