We have taken profits in IFCI at Rs. 62 which has returned 15% and long-term target (2-3year perspective) can be Rs 100-120 for this stock as well, but looking at overall market structure we have taken a safe view as CASH is KING now. Our investment in FABULOUS-15 is now just 28% with 13 stocks and 72% cash would be very handy if tough time strikes. Result season is almost near its end and news so far hasn’t been soothing, Sales for the 496 companies announcing results so far have risen by 18.5% while their Net Profits have dipped by 14.1% (Source- Capital Market). A de-growth in Net Profits at such a time when Indices are hitting 30-month highs is a nasty negative news and any downgrades on Indian companies won’t do any good for markets from here on. Investors have to be doubly cautious if we end this earnings season the way we have witnessed as P/E would rise; we already are costly as compared to other emerging markets and compared to US markets as well. Nifty not crossing 5477 and breaking 5350 would start fresh correction.
| FABULOUS-15 TRACKER (Prices in Rs) | ||||||
| Stock Name | Reco Price | CMP | Target | % Weight | % Returns | Action |
| 3IINFOTECH | 87 | 65 | 118 | 2 | -25 | Hold |
| ADHUNIK MET | 110 | 119 | 152 | 2 | 8 | Hold |
| EKC | 156 | 130 | 189 | 2 | -17 | Hold |
| EMCO | 91 | 74 | 130 | 2 | -19 | Hold |
| GLENMARK | 278 | 285 | 350 | 2 | 3 | Hold |
| GSPL | 98 | 102 | 125 | 2 | 4 | Hold |
| GUJ NRE COKE | 72 | 64 | 110 | 2 | -11 | Hold |
| MRPL | 78 | 80 | 100 | 2 | 3 | Hold |
| NEYVELILIG | 152 | 155 | 196 | 2 | 2 | Hold |
| POWERGRID | 109 | 101 | 141 | 2 | -7 | Hold |
| SUZLON | 75 | 59 | 140 | 4 | -21 | Hold |
| JUBILANT | 325 | 357 | 450 | 2 | 10 | Hold |
| FSL | 30 | 26 | 38 | 2 | -13 | Hold |
| IFCI | 54 | 62 | 75 | 2 | 15 | BP |
| GIC HOUSING | 88 | 122 | 150 | 2 | 39 | BP |
| GREAVES COT | 286 | 338 | 352 | 2 | 18 | BP |
| SKUMAR | 41 | 49 | 70 | 2 | 20 | BP |
| ABG SHIP | 210 | 270 | 270 | 2 | 29 | BP |
| Total | | | | 28 | 0.31 | |
| Add: | | |||||
| Interest @ 6% for 7 months | 3.50 | |||||
| Total % Returns | 3.81 | |||||
| Annualized Returns % | 6.54 | |||||
- This is just a model portfolio.
- Be just 28% invested and don't do averaging for the sake of that.
- Do not average if 30% dip is not seen after your purchase, averaging should be considered time-wise also.
- At least 2-3 months must pass before you buy again in a dip.
- As we hold a view that Sensex below 13000 in 2010 can be possible so avoid aggressively and leveraged positions.
- This market is a bear market which can cut both ways, it is always difficult to mint money in such market and it is better to be an investor and accumulate.
- Being correct in market is difficult so we have invested 28% so that in case of market rally we don't miss the opportunities.
