Monday, May 31, 2010

Fabulous-15 Update

FABULOUS-15 has regained some of the losses as this week Nifty rose by 2.75% and pullback has been very good in FABULOUS-15 stocks as well. JUBILANT and GIC HSG are only two stocks that are showing positive returns at the moment but because we have been modest about investing the overall performance has been better than the market returns.

FABULOUS-15 TRACKER (Prices in Rs)
Stock Name
Reco Price
CMP
Target
% Weight
% Returns
Action
3IINFOTECH
87
66
118
2
-24
Hold
ADHUNIK MET
110
108
152
2
-2
Hold
EKC
156
132
189
2
-15
Hold
EMCO
91
78
130
2
-14
Hold
GIC HOUSING
92
94
150
2
2
Hold
GLENMARK
278
270
350
2
-3
Hold
GSPL
98
91
125
2
-7
Hold
GUJ NRE COKE
72
63
110
2
-13
Hold
IFCI
54
52
75
2
-4
Hold
MRPL
78
66
100
2
-15
Hold
NEYVELILIG
152
144
196
2
-5
Hold
POWERGRID
109
103
141
2
-6
Hold
SUZLON
75
61
140
4
-18
Hold
JUBILANT
325
343
450
2
6
Hold
FSL
30
26
38
2
-13
Hold
GREAVES COT
286
338
352
2
18
BP
SKUMAR
41
49
70
2
20
BP
ABG SHIP
210
270
270
2
29
BP
Total



32
-1.67


Many companies from this list have announced dividends and following is the list for the same:

Stock
CMP
Div (Rs)
Div Yield (%)
3IINFOTECH
87
1.5
1.72
ADHUNIK MET
110
NA
EKC
156
1.2
0.77
EMCO
91
1.4
1.54
GIC HOUSING
92
4.5
4.89
GLENMARK
278
0.4
0.14
GSPL
98
1
1.02
GUJ NRE COKE
72
NA
IFCI
54
1
1.85
MRPL
78
1
1.28
NEYVELILIG
152
1
0.66
POWERGRID
109
1
0.92
SUZLON
74.5
NA
JUBILANT
325
2
0.62
FSL
30
NA
*NA - Not Announced So Far

GDP Data for Q4 to be announced on Monday 31 May and Monsoon rains would be next important triggers for the markets. Thought Met Dept has forecast arrival of Monsoon in next 3-4 days any delay would be a negative for markets as globally sentiment has become very negative and locally monsoon is the only good news that may happen. But this market has already discounted the best in my view and worse is yet to follow. Debt downgrade contagion is spreading like Avian Flu and with Europe forming 20% of Indian exports we would not be totally free from danger.


  • Be just 32% invested and don't do averaging for the sake of that.
  • Don't average if 30% dip is not seen after your purchase, averaging should be considered time-wise also.
  • At least 2-3 months must pass before you buy again in a dip.
  • As we hold a view that Sensex below 13000 in 2010 can be possible so avoid aggressively and leveraged positions.
  • This market is a bear market which can cut both ways, it is always difficult to mint money in such market and it is better to be an investor and accumulate.
  • Being correct in market is difficult so we have invested 32% so that in case of market rally we don't miss the opportunities.


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