Friday, May 14, 2010

Impact of European crisis on Indian market

MADRAS STOCK EXCHANGE CHENNAI -----
Investors Awareness and Education Programme to be held on Saturday, the 15th May 2010 at 04.00 p.m. at the Exchange Building, No.30, Second Line Beach, Chennai-600 001.
“Impact of European crisis on Indian market” http://www.akprabhakar.com/  Impact of Europe crisis would be felt across globe which can lead to cut in Government spending in many European countries which can impact India's export and remittance. Indian growth estimate is based on high commodity prices as price correction in commodity can impact our forward estimate where Commodity growth of 30% and 15% growth in Industrial is forecasted.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/12/business/economy/12leonhardt.html  In Greek Debt Crisis, Some See Parallels to U.S
Euro Breakup Talk Increases as Germany Loses Its Currency Proxy http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agwHp5N5FXA8&pos=1  
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16106575&CFID=131193060&CFTOKEN=49819741  Europe’s policymakers have stood accused of doing too little, too late as the sovereign-debt crisis that engulfed Greece threatened to spread to Portugal, Spain, Ireland and perhaps elsewhere.
Why Is Greece Different?

GERMANY
GREECE
INDIA
USA
Retirement Age
58
50
58
65
Population Growth
-ve
-ve
+ve
Stable
Life Expectancy
75
75
60
75
Immigration
Poor due to language and limited resources
Poor due to language and limited resources
High Population has effectively supported brain drain
Stingent yet sees millions of immigrants moving in
Pension Funds
Highly active and critical for those who have paid taxes earlier for post retirement earnings
Heavily  burdened with early retirement age and poor population growth
Strict Govt laws do not provide for them to invest in Equity Markets. They generate income through govt finance
High exposure in  Capital Markets worth billions of US$
Debt Impact
Burdened with a poor ratio of Earning Population vis a vis Retired Pension Earners will now have to deal with Greece’s retirement imparity.
A much earlier age of retirement, risk of brain drain due to lack of employment, higher rates of interest will make it difficult for them to generate income.
Internal consumption is very high  and has a steady growth in GDP with govt progressively reducing debt via divestment plans.
Flow of talent into USA and internal resources with new curbs by govt help them to get off recession.